2022 Midterm Election Predictions
Here Goes Nothing...
Back in September, I sent a memo to a colleague that gave the lay of the land in the midterm. Republicans were struggling in the polls at the time, and the expectation was that they would see net gains of ten to 20 House seats. Control of the Senate was very much up in the air. Over the course of the past more than a month, the dynamics of the midterm have changed. Republicans very clearly have an advantage and are likely to pick up more House seats than expected and take control of the Senate.
How confident am I in these predictions? Not very. On some level, I really have no idea what to expect. I don’t play on the red or the blue team, so I don’t really have a dog in the fight. This does look like a red wave, though. I don’t think that looks like 1994 or 2010, but Republicans seem to have all the momentum.
Thinking back to 2020, even though Republicans lost the White House by a wide margin and narrowly lost control of the Senate, they gained seats in the House when they were expected to lose them. We’ve had redistricting since 2020, and there are, according to Cook Political Report, 88 competitive House seats and 13 competitive Senate seats. Of those House seats, 36 are considered toss-ups, 15 lean Democratic, 13 lean Republican, 13 are likely Democratic, and 11 are likely Republican. Four Senate seats are considered toss-ups, two lean Democratic, three are three Republican, one is likely Democratic, and three are likely Republican.
We’re more likely to see surprises on the House side than on the Senate side. There are always surprises. My best guess right now is that Republicans will pick up a net 22 seats. I don’t think it’s out of the question that they win more districts.
On the Senate side, my prediction is that Republicans will have a majority of 51 to 49 by the end of the night. The biggest question mark will be in Georgia. Although I do expect Herschel Walker to win a plurality over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), I don’t know if he’ll be able to notch the 50 percent plus one vote that Georgia law requires to avoid a runoff. The Libertarian in the race, Chase Oliver, does seem to be pulling enough votes to put the race in runoff territory. With enthusiasm on their side heading into the December runoff, I expect Walker to win the race and hand Republicans another seat. Georgia would be the 52nd seat in the Republican majority.
I don’t think a 53-seat or 54-seat majority is out of the question for Republicans. I have Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) winning their races. Those two races are very close, especially in Arizona, and I can see them going either way.
For sake of just getting this off my chest. I tend to believe that divided government is a good thing, but I also strongly feel that Republicans haven’t earned majorities in either chamber because of their constant cozying up to the former president, who I find dangerous and disgusting. At the same time, it’s hard to deny that a wave is building. The economy and inflation are the primary concerns of voters, and they look primed to respond at the ballot box. No matter what happens, I expect the party that wins to take exactly the wrong messages from the election, and they’ll try to govern through legislative clickbait.