Another Headache on the Abortion Issue for Republicans

Voters Want Abortion to Remain an Option for Women

On Friday, a federal judge in Texas issued an injunction against the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of one of the drugs used to induce an abortion. (There was also a ruling the same day in Washington state that does the exact opposite.) The drug, mifepristone (RU-486), was approved by the FDA in September 2000, and drugs are used in a little more than half of all abortions in the United States. As reluctant as I am to write this post because I’ve very rarely talked about my personal opinions on this topic, I really feel compelled to do so since this ruling is likely to put the issue in the hands of the Supreme Court at some point in the near future.

I have to say upfront that the extremes on both sides of this issue drive me nuts. I know people have strongly held opinions on the topic. I have friends who are pro-life and pro-choice, and I truly believe their views are sincere. That said, I also know that this is one of the toughest decisions a woman can make. Anyone who has a family member or a friend who has been through this knows that fact.

Before we jump into the politics of the issue, we need to look at the statistics on abortion in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks these data pretty extensively. In 2020, the most recent year for which the data are available, nearly 93 percent of abortions occurred at 15 weeks of gestation or less. Overall, 98.9 percent of abortions took place at 20 weeks or less. A fetus is considered viable at week 22 or 23.

Almost 60 percent of women who had an abortion in 2020 had at least one previous live birth compared to 39.1 percent who hadn’t had a previous live birth. Nearly 58 percent had never previously had an abortion while 24.1 percent had at least one and 18.3 percent had two or more. Overwhelmingly, at 86.3 percent, women who had abortions were unmarried compared to 13.7 percent who were married.

The CDC doesn’t provide any detail on the abortions that occur after 20 weeks, but Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post did offer a glimpse. “[A]n examination of state data shows most of those late-term abortions come within the 22nd or 23rd week, when viability outside the womb is not assured,” Kessler explained. “In Minnesota, in 2021, about 1.8 percent of 10,000 abortions took place after 20 weeks. But virtually all of the 161 abortions took place in the 21st, 22nd and 23rd week. Only five took place later—with one in the 28th week.” Kessler also noted, “In Virginia, since 2000, state records show an abortion after 28 weeks has been performed only in three years – 2001, 2004 and 2015.”

The politics of the issue are pretty clear. Americans tend to prefer abortion as an option available to women. We saw Americans’ opinion on abortion on display in the 2022 midterm election and the “red wave” that wasn’t. Although inflation was the top issue for a plurality of voters, CNN shows that 27 percent listed abortion as their top issue, and 76 percent of those voters cast their ballots for Democrats. Only 23 percent voted for Republicans. But those are only the toplines. We’ve got to look a little deeper. When you look at the numbers for women, 33 percent listed abortion as their top issue, and it was the top issue for a plurality of women, 77 percent voted for Democrats while 22 percent voted for Republicans.

Admittedly, I’m not a fan of the polling on abortion. It doesn’t really offer a lot of detail. The questions are often too basic. For example, according to Gallup, only 13 percent of Americans want to ban abortion while 35 percent believe it should be legal under any circumstance. Fully, 50 percent say that abortion should be legal in certain circumstances. Unfortunately, Gallup didn’t offer the circumstance for which the 50 percent believe abortion should be legal, so the poll is kind of worthless other than to gauge general sentiment. The Pew Research Center, however, shows that 61 percent of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most instances while 37 percent say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Looking at Virginia—which may or may not be a battleground state in 2024 considering Republicans’ statewide success in the Commonwealth in 2021—we do have more detail. Gov. Glenn Youngkin has proposed a ban on abortion after 15 weeks, with the standard exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. The Washington Post conducted a survey in late March and asked about abortion. Although the survey asked the general question about whether Virginia’s abortion laws should be more or less strict—41 percent said less strict, 34 percent want them kept the way they are now, and 17 percent say they should be stricter—the Washington Post asked voters about Youngkin’s 15-week ban. Look, it’s close between those who support and oppose, within the margin of error, but the survey found that 49 percent support Youngkin’s proposal while 46 percent oppose it.

It's one survey, and it’s limited to one state, but it does show that Americans are not black and white on the subject of abortion. What Democrats and Republicans on the fringes of their parties don’t want to admit is that there’s nuance when it comes to abortion. A majority of Americans believe abortion should be available, but a plurality believes there should be limitations.

This serves as a warning to Republicans. The efforts of traditionally Republican states to enact further restrictions on abortion are hurting the party on a national scale. The continued stream of lawsuits is an even bigger problem for the Republican Party after Dobbs.

If abortion remains a top national issue, and all signs point to that being the case, and then you add in the ex-president to the mix, who’s the favorite to win the Republican nomination, Republicans may have another disappointing election cycle in 2024. That’s not a prediction. Rather, it’s just a word of caution. A lot can happen between now and then, and the economic climate doesn’t appear to be great, but it wasn’t great in 2022.