Demographic Shifts Show a Difficult Path for Republicans

The White Population Has Declined by 1.2 Million Since 2010

Those of you who’ve been reading Exiled Policy for a while have probably caught on to the fact that I’ve taken an interest in population demographics. (For some examples, see here, here, and here.) It’s a fascinating subject, particularly in the hyperpolarized times in which we live, because of how the American population may look in the years to come.

Racial politics have reared their ugly head as Republicans stir fights over critical race theory (CRT), policing, immigration, and other issues. These issues have become part of the broader culture war in which we find ourselves. The culture war is taxing, and it’s a constant race to the bottom, but here we are. It’s frustrating.

Population demographics are really a warning sign for Republicans. If they weren’t constantly trying to appease the ex-president and his cult of followers, grifting talk show hosts and personalities, and the fringe base of their party, Republicans would stop and realize that the politics they’re practicing today is a path to becoming a minority party. Messaging bills related to the culture wars and restricting immigration do little more than speak to the base. That base is getting older.

Between December 2010 and December 2022, according to the Census Bureau, the United States population has grown by nearly 23 million people. Over the same time period, the white population declined by a net 1.2 million people. In 2010, whites represented 63.6 percent of the population. In 2022, whites were 58.9 percent of the population. That figure will only decline in the future.

Here’s a look at the 2010 cohort.

And the 2020 cohort.

Another demographic fact is that 51.1 percent of the population was born in 1983 or after. This cohort has represented the majority of the population since 2021. Now, when you look back to 2010, the similarly aged cohort, born in 1971 to 2010, was 53.6 percent of the population. The key difference is that those born in 1983 or later are more racially diverse. Almost 56 percent of the 1971 and later cohort is white while under 52 percent of the 1983 or later cohort is white.

Whites are already in the minority of those born in 2008 or later (aged 14 or younger), representing 48.7 percent. In 2010, 53 percent of our comparison cohort, those born in 1995, were white.

The lights are flashing red for Republicans, but little is changing in terms of their approach to the voters they need to win elections in the future. It’s no secret that young voters have a strong tendency to vote for Democrats over Republicans, and exit polls from 2018, 2020, and 2022 highlight that fact. However, the thought that these voters will gradually get more conservative hasn’t matched reality.

Sadly, that’s coming from the economic side. After all, these voters haven’t really known economic stability as adults. They’ve been through the Great Recession and a slow recovery and the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation. I still think that a message of limited government and lower taxes can appeal to these voters, but the problem is that Republicans aren’t really making themselves an option. Why? Because we also know that these voters are more socially progressive and racially diverse than in the past.

The Republican Party isn’t going to be able to change as long as it’s dominated by Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Tom Cotton, and Josh Hawley. Republicans are immobilized and unable to evolve while these charlatans have a stranglehold on the party. The congressional leaders of the party, of course, deserve a lot of blame. They’re blinded by seeking short-term political victories, and they’re sacrificing their future electoral prospects.