Republicans' Very Underwhelming Midterm Performance

Trump Is a Burden to the Republican Party, and Last Night Proved It

Well, I was wrong. I did caveat my predictions by saying that I wasn’t very confident. In hindsight, I should’ve stuck with the estimates that I went with in the memo I drafted for a colleague in September. I wish I could share that memo, but it was never meant to be something public. What I wrote at the time was “the estimate of Republican seats [is] between 222 and 232. Democrats would be between 201 to 211 seats.” On the Senate side, I wrote, “The races in Georgia and Wisconsin, though, may ultimately decide control of the Senate…When considering polling trends, the Senate could remain in its current 50/50 split.”

This morning, pundits are talking about the possibility that Democrats could keep the House. That seems unlikely, but it’s still a mathematical possibility. It looks like if Republicans win the majority, which I still think is more likely than not, it’ll be very slim. Potentially even slimmer than the majority Democrats had when the 117th Congress began.

Over in the Senate, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) still has a lead, but Maricopa County may not finish counting until Friday. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is currently trailing her Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, but that race remains too close to call, and Clark and Washoe counties are still reporting. Clark County is the base of Democrats’ voting power in Nevada, so all bets are off. If Cortez Masto does manage to win, Kelly holds his lead, Democrats would have 50 seats and retain their majority.

My home state of Georgia remains in play. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Herschel Walker are almost certainly heading to a December 6 runoff. Georgia could decide whether Democrats have an outright majority of 51 seats or an evenly split Senate that’s technically a majority, but one with a power-sharing agreement between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). For the uninitiated, given the even split in the Senate, there is a power-sharing agreement in place for the 117th Congress. This also happened in 2001 when the Senate was evenly split.

My friends in Georgia, I’m sorry. The election groundhog has decided that you have another month of the midterm, and it’s going to be absolutely brutal, especially if Kelly holds Arizona and Cortez Masto manages to come from behind to win Nevada.

Of course, all of this changes if Kelly or Cortez Masto, or both, lose. Republicans would have the majority if both lose, and what happens in Georgia matters would matter a lot less. Georgia voters will still face an onslaught of ads and much more.

Republicans will keep Alaska, but the question is whether or not Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) remains in the Senate. Considering the combination of final five and ranked-choice voting that the state uses, Murkowski should remain in the seat, but it’s just too early to tell. I should note that while I’m a fan of ranked-choice voting, I don’t like final five.

Ultimately, it may be a few more days until we know for certain what the party divisions for the 118th Congress will be in the House and the Senate. Still, I have some preliminary reactions to the midterms.

The Election Was a Repudiation of Trump and “MAGA”

It’s really hard to draw any other conclusion. Despite J.D. Vance’s win in Ohio, in a race that was closer than it should’ve been, Republican Senate candidates backed by Trump were defeated. I’ll concede that it’s too early to write Blake Masters and Kelly Tshibaka’s political obituaries in Arizona and Arizona. Looking at Trump’s Senate endorsements in competitive races via Axios, he won five, but three of those wins came from incumbent Republican senators who are in their third election cycle. This doesn’t include Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), also in his third cycle, ran for re-election. CNN has called that race for Johnson while Axios hasn’t. Although it’s possible that he could win a few more, the odds don’t look good. Thus far, though, he lost only Pennsylvania.

In the House, most of the competitive races Trump endorsed in are too close to call, but he’s lost four and won three. Ten are undecided. Democrats have leads in five of those races, but these seem like they could go either way considering how close they are, how much vote-counting remains to be done, or a combination of the two.

In gubernatorial races, Trump won two, but those states, Texas and Oklahoma, are traditionally Republican. Texas is trending in the wrong direction for Republicans, but it’s not quite purple yet. He lost three and four are undecided. Democrats lead in two of the undecided races. One of those undecided races, Kansas, has been called for the Democratic incumbent by CNN. The two competitive secretary of state races that Trump endorsed in are undecided, according to Axios, but CNN has called the Michigan race, leaving the Arizona race to be decided.

One recurring theme I’ve seen on Twitter, and that platform doesn’t reflect real life, is conservatives, to some degree, are over Trump. This is a general theme, of course, and I’m not saying every conservative feels that way. But the theme is playing out even in the authoritarian element of the conservative movement (“national conservatives”). The conservative movement appears, by and large, ready for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who has seemingly moved Florida from a purple state to arguably solidly red.

The only real power that Trump has is in Republican primaries and in Republican states where Democrats can’t really be competitive. Voters appear to be tired of Trump. From what I’ve read this morning, though, Trump appears to still be moving toward announcing his campaign on November 15. Is he the odds-on favorite now? After last night, he clearly shouldn’t be.

Republicans Face a Reckoning

Erick Erickson made a comparison between this election and the 1998 midterm election. “In 1998, Republicans nationally underperformed expectations with a net zero gain in the Senate and a five-seat Democrat pick-up in the House,” Erickson writes. “Republicans in Washington went into rebellion against Gingrich, tossing him overboard. Republicans nationally gravitated towards the guy in Texas who’d just taken a purple state and locked it in bright red.”

There’s more context to add to this. President Clinton was in his second term, unlike Biden who is in his first. Republicans were in the midst of the impeachment inquiry into Clinton, who was a popular president. President Biden doesn’t enjoy the popularity of Clinton, but voters don’t palpably hate him. If you’re a swing voter and you’re given the choice between Biden and Trump, even if you have questions about him, you choose Biden because he’s more stable. Trump represents chaos and destruction.

If Republicans continue to cozy up to Trump, they may face hell in 2024. They’ll deserve it if they do. I’m not saying that Republicans should demonize him, but they have to find their way without him. That means de-emphasizing the culture war nonsense, embracing institutions and democratic norms, forming a coherent policy agenda, and, yes, working in a bipartisan fashion.

All of this begins at the top. McConnell was right when he said that candidate quality mattered. He realized the challenge. As a classical liberal and independent voter, I have plenty of disagreements with McConnell, but I respect him. He’s the defacto leader of the Republican Party right now.

The House Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, faces challenges. The first of his challenges is to find the votes to become Speaker. We still don’t know what the Republican majority looks like, but the smaller that majority is, the harder it becomes for McCarthy to get the votes without making significant concessions to far-right conservatives in his conference. Ironically, the far-right conservatives in the conference are partially responsible for where the conference finds itself.

If McCarthy isn’t willing to make concessions, can he win the floor vote on January 3 to become Speaker? Honestly, I don’t know. It will depend entirely on how big his majority is. I’m not saying that McCarthy is going to be the next Newt Gingrich. The conference could come together in solidarity at the outset, with some minor concessions to far-right conservatives. But one thing is clear here: Republicans will not have a workable majority. The fissures inside the party will be exposed, and they will be exposed early, potentially as soon as next week’s leadership elections.

The Only Political Realignment Happening Is Inside the Republican Party

I saw a tweet this morning suggesting that it’s too early to draw conclusions and that the political realignment is messy. Ehhhhh. Nah. You can draw conclusions. You can also say that the only political realignment happening is inside the Republican Party.

I’ll concede that DeSantis, who is the favorite of the ultra-populist and nationalist faction of the conservative movement, has a future in national electoral politics and that he could be the Republican nominee in 2024. I don’t know that you can take the success he’s found in Florida, which is certainly an accomplishment, and say that it’ll translate nationally.

DeSantis would have to moderate himself in a national general election to win. Can he win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin? Perhaps, but an issue like abortion will factor into the equation in those states. You may say, “Yeah, but, Jason, the economy will be an issue in 2024, especially if we have a recession.” And the economy wasn’t an issue in this election?

Something you have to keep in mind is that the Republican base is getting older with each passing day and the overall electorate is getting younger. The voters who will dominate elections in the future are much more socially tolerant and accepting—not to mention, less religious—than their older counterparts. I’m not saying Republicans can’t or won’t win elections in the future. What I am saying is that it’ll get harder for them to win elections unless they de-emphasize the culture wars.

Also, not that the popular vote matters much in presidential elections, but Republican presidential candidates have won the popular vote only once since 1992. Folks, that’s 30 years (eight presidential elections). “But, Jason, the Electoral College is what matters!” I know, but you can’t claim a mandate in this day and age without winning the popular vote. If the alarms aren’t going off inside your head, you should get out of your partisan echo chamber. I also don’t know if the Electoral College can survive after another presidential election cycle in which a Republican gets elected without a majority of the popular vote. I realize that’s a loaded statement, and there would be court challenges to any sort of a national popular vote scheme. Under the current makeup of the Supreme Court, the Electoral College would live on, but not without further straining an already very divided nation.

Democrats Shouldn’t Get Too Confident

The red team and the blue team are going to learn all the wrong lessons from this election. Call me a cynic if you want. I’m a realist. This should be an eye-opening cycle for both parties, but I just don’t think it will be.

For everything I’ve said about Republicans de-emphasizing the culture wars, Democrats should do the same, including on an issue like abortion. I think it’s pretty well established that Americans generally support access to abortion, but that’s not to say that Americans support access without restrictions. Democrats who punt on that question or try to wiggle their way out of answering it comes across as disconnected.

I consider myself socially tolerant, but even I find so-called “woke” culture taxing at times. Free speech is, of course, a two-way street. People have to understand that freedom of speech a) keeps you free of censorship only from the government and b) doesn’t mean there aren’t social consequences for whatever you say or type. That said, we have to understand that we are divided among racial, economic, and religious lines. We need to keep that in mind. All of us. But the social pressure that has come with woke culture has fostered resentment and only driven it underground for it to grow.

Democrats also need to understand that socialism isn’t a winning message. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) didn’t get re-elected because she ran on a platform of socialism. Neither did most of the other Democrats in battleground districts who won last night or find themselves ahead today by anywhere from a couple hundred to a few thousand votes. This election could’ve turned out very differently.

Republicans are unlikely to take the first step in turning down the heat in national politics. It’s up to Democrats to take the first step. You can say that I’m not being fair. I’m being honest. If Republicans aren’t willing to meet them, it’ll eventually pay off for Democrats at the ballot box.