Taking a Look At the Special Election in Ohio's 6th Congressional District

Does a Surprisingly Close Special Election Tell Us Much?

No one should read too much into special election results, but the results in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District (OH-06) last week are fascinating. Are the results indicative of where the cycle may be heading? Again, it’s too early to say. If you’re a Democrat, you’re concerned about the party base being motivated to show up in the fall. The results in OH-06 suggest the Democratic base may actually be very motivated.  

For those who aren’t aware of this special election, in November 2023, Youngtown State University Board of Trustees offered Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) the opportunity to become president of the school. Johnson accepted the job, and he resigned from Congress in January 2024.

OH-06 is a Republican district. There’s no question about that. The Cook Political Report lists the district as “Solid Republican,” with a partisan voter index (PVI) of R+16.  Johnson won re-election in November 2022 by 35.4 points. Johnson took 67.7 percent of the more than 280,000 votes that were cast to his Democratic opponent’s 32.3 percent.

Special elections tend to bring out hard partisans on both sides. Turnout is much lower than normal. In this case, turnout in the special election in OH-06 was 21.3 percent of what it was in the 2022 general election. Just under 60,000 people cast ballots.

What’s interesting is that the Democratic nominee, Michael Kripchak, raised under $23,000, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission, and spent under $11,000. His largest expenditures—$2,901 in total—were for yard signs. He also spent $1,629 on mass texting. Kripchak, although a veteran and highly educated, was a server at a restaurant prior to running for Congress.

The Republican nominee, state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem), raised more than $678,000 and had name ID in the district. He has $76,146 on hand. Rulli spent only $109,126 after he won the Republican primary on March 19. So, he spent close to $500,000 just to win the primary, which, sadly, is where the vast majority of congressional races are decided.

Look, Rulli didn’t spend much money after winning the nomination, but he still outspent Kripchak by a 10 to 1 ratio. Rulli won by 9.3 points. In a heavily Republican district, that’s not a good showing. He may do better in a general election atmosphere when it’s more than hardcore partisan voters who show up to the polls.

It’s easy to dismiss the special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District (NY-03). George Santos, who was elected as a Republican, was expelled from the House because of a strong indictment against him. He also lied about his background. Like, he lied a lot. Republicans nominated a relative newcomer to politics, Mazi Pilip, who faced off against an experienced former Democratic congressman, Tom Suozzi. Suozzi was able to win by moving to the center on issues like border security.

What does this mean for November? I’m hesitant to make a prediction. Polling for the generic congressional ballot is all over the place. I subscribe to the view that Democrats are likely to win the House in November if the Democratic base is motivated enough, but that the margins will be very close. That’s the era we’re living in right now.

(Note: Some may wonder why I didn’t include the special election results in California’s 20th Congressional District as part of this analysis. California operates on a top-two election system. The top two candidates in the primary advance to the general election. There were nine candidates in the March primary. The two Democratic candidates took 25 percent of the vote between them and were vastly outraised in this R+16 district. Republican candidates raised almost $2.6 million to the Democratic candidates’ $193,066. The district was also represented by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. None of this includes outside spending.)