The 2023 Elections Were Rough for Republicans But Not a Disaster

Abortion Isn't Going Away as an Issue

The 2023 election cycle is over, and it was a pretty rough election night for Republicans. Not only did they lose a high-profile gubernatorial race in Kentucky, but they also lost the Virginia House of Delegates and failed to win control of the Virginia Senate and lost a campaign to stop a constitutional amendment in Ohio to protect abortion rights. Recreational marijuana was also approved in Ohio.

To be clear, the night could have been worse for Republicans. There are certainly bright spots for them. For example, Republicans won every other statewide race in Kentucky, with no candidate getting less than 57 percent of the vote. In Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves won reelection in a competitive race.

The Virginia legislative races and the Kentucky gubernatorial race were probably the most closely watched. The result of the Ohio abortion amendment, I think, was probably expected after the defeat of Issue 1 back in August. Issue 1, which was a proxy for the abortion issue, would’ve raised the threshold for the adoption of the amendment from 50 percent plus one vote to 60 percent plus one vote. Had it been adopted, Issue 1 would’ve faced a higher threshold last night. Ohio Republicans, of course, have learned nothing from the adoption of the protection of abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution and may pursue legislation to take jurisdiction on the issue from the courts.

I can’t really speak much to the Kentucky gubernatorial race because I wasn’t paying attention to it. Daniel Cameron, a Black Republican who currently serves as the Commonwealth’s attorney general, was a Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) handpicked candidate. Cameron was McConnell’s counsel from March 2015 to June 2017. Cameron was also endorsed by Donald Trump, and he didn’t exactly try to hide it. Gov. Andy Beshear easily outraised Cameron. Polling in the race was all over the place, but the last polls in the race either had it tied or gave Beshear anywhere from a 2-point to 8-point lead. Abortion was a big issue in the campaign, and it hurt Cameron.

Abortion also played prominently in Virginia. The Commonwealth doesn’t prohibit abortion until the third trimester, with exceptions. The exceptions are that “the continuation of the pregnancy is likely to result in the death of the woman or substantially and irremediably impair the mental or physical health of the woman.” A physician and two consulting physicians would have to certify this medical opinion.

Living in Virginia and in the Richmond media market, I can tell you that abortion was a focus of state legislative campaigns. The state Senate district in which I live is one Republicans can rely on. It’s not overwhelmingly Republican, but the Republican who ran in the district took 55 percent of the vote. The competitive race in the area was between state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant (R-Henrico) and state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D-Richmond). Dunnavant won a very close race in 2019. Redistricting made the district more favorable for Democrats.

VanValkenburg ran ads on abortion (like, more than I can include here, but you can search ads via VPAP), school shootings, and book bans. At risk of being defined by her opponent, Dunnavant countered with an ad of her own defending her record on abortion. She ran ads criticizing VanValkenburg on crime, raising utility prices, and more. She also ran an ad at the close of the campaign featuring Gov. Glenn Youngkin. VanValkenburg won by almost 9 points.

Democrats ended up losing a net one state Senate seat, which was enough to keep their majority. The 21 seats Democrats have in the upper chamber are the same as they won in the 2019 legislative elections. Democrats won the 22nd seat after they picked up the seat left vacant by former state Sen. Jen Kiggins, a Republican, who resigned after winning the race in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in the 2022 midterms. Democrats also won a net three state House seats to give them a majority in the chamber. There’s one state House seat that’s still an open question.

Republicans won three of the four competitive seats in the state Senate. Those three seats are SD-17, SD-24, and SD-27. Those seats have a very narrow skew toward Democrats, but they also went for Youngkin in 2021. The Republican candidate in SD-27 didn’t win a majority and was likely aided by an independent who ran on abortion rights.

I don’t buy the narrative that the results in Virginia were a disaster for Republicans. I also don’t buy the spin from Republicans that Republicans had a good night in Virginia. Karl Rove made that case in the Wall Street Journal, frequently referring to Virginia as “a blue state.” I mean, it’s blue-ish, I suppose. A Republican serves as governor of the state and Republicans had the state House from 2000 to 2020 and from 2022 to 2024. That’s 22 out of the past 24 years. Oh, and Republicans had the state Senate for 17 out of the past 24 years. (I’m using this graphic to show the party divisions in the legislature between 2000 and 2022. Republicans had the House between 2022 and 2024 while Democrats had the Senate.) In federal races, Democrats tend to dominate. That’s not a surprise. Off-year elections tend to be more competitive.

Rove also wrote that “Democrats didn’t flip a single district Donald Trump took.” I don’t think that’s as compelling of an argument as Rove believes it is. Gubernatorial and legislative elections in Virginia are held in odd years, so it’s a different electorate. Turnout is going to be lower than even in a federal midterm election, perhaps unless there’s a gubernatorial race. There were seven competitive state House districts. Youngkin won them all in 2021. Three of those districts went for Democrats. Democrats flipped one state Senate seat that Youngkin won. As noted, SD-27, which Youngkin won, likely would’ve flipped had the independent not been in the race.

There are warning signs for Democrats in Virginia, though, and it would a critical error to ignore them. Democrats won a majority in the House for only the second time since 2000. Although there were 32 uncontested races in the House, Democrats took 49.4 percent of the vote to Republicans 47.8 percent in all House races, combined. The remaining 2.8 percent of the vote were either cast for third party, independents, or write-ins. (Republicans, though, are a long way from 2017 when they won 66 seats in the House to the 49 seats they won last week. So, there’s that.)

Republicans actually won a majority of votes cast in state Senate races, taking 50.2 percent of the vote to Democrats 48 percent. Another 1.8 percent voted for third-party, independents, and write-ins. Only five Senate seats went uncontested. However, if you were to take away the uncontested races, Republicans took 49.5 percent of votes in contested House races while Democrats won 49.2 percent. In contested Senate races, Democrats won 51.1 percent to Republicans’ 47.7 percent. Five Senate races determined the majority in the Senate. Democrats only needed to win two of them, and that’s exactly what they won. In the House, Democrats needed to flip three of the seven competitive seats. They pulled that off. They’ve got the bare minimum majorities in both chambers, but that’s all they needed.

Another warning sign for Democrats is Loudoun County. Located in Northern Virginia, not far from Washington, DC, Loudoun County became a hotbed of controversy, largely because of the school board and culture war issues. Republican-backed candidates picked up some ground in school board races. Both Democratic-backed incumbents lost, but they still have a majority on the school board. The Republican candidate for Commonwealth’s attorney in Loudoun County also beat the Democratic incumbent. The impact of Republican wins in Loudoun County, though, appear to be limited.

What conclusions can we draw from the 2023 elections? Well, the main one is that abortion isn’t going away as an issue. Republicans had been delighted to see President Biden’s low approval ratings going into a presidential election year and recent polling showing Trump competitive against President Biden in the states that will decide the election. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. President Biden’s approval rating was better ahead of the 2022 midterms, but not by much. Republicans expected a “red wave,” they didn’t win the Senate, as expected, and barely won control of the House.

I guess my point is that we shouldn’t read too much into polls, especially right now, but just generally. Can abortion be blunted by Republicans through another issue? Anything is possible. Republicans have tried to focus on the economy, inflation, cultural issues, fentanyl, and crime. Some of those worked better than others. Right now, the economy seems to be hit or miss, and the world seems like it’s on fire. These and other issues may play prominently into 2024. I’m just not convinced that voters will be convinced Republicans, who do have a favorable map in the Senate, with the ex-president likely at the top of the ticket, will be able to do much to pick up substantial gains.