The Old Dominion, the Garden State, and the Big Apple Head to the Voting Booth

It's like the beginning of a bad joke

We are more than nine months into the second Trump Administration and on November 4th, voters in Virginia and New Jersey will head to the polls to decide who leads their states’ government. These elections are an early referendum on the party in the White House. In New York City, voters will decide who their next mayor will be. Though the mayoral race for NYC doesn’t appear to be competitive, there are implications for both parties. A disclaimer before diving in: as someone born and raised in Virginia, this analysis will be heavily focused on the Commonwealth’s elections.

The Commonwealth of Virginia

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is barred from seeking a second consecutive term for Governor per the Virginia Constitution. The incumbent Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, is the GOP nominee for Governor. She faces former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee. An independent candidate for Governor withdrew from the race and endorsed Spanberger. The nominees for Lieutenant Governor are John Reid (R), a radio show host, and state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D). The incumbent Attorney General, Jason Miyeras (R), is seeking reelection against former Delegate Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee. It should be noted that only two Attorneys General of Virginia have served two terms in the Commonwealth’s history: Mary Sue Terry (1986-1993), who resigned during her second term for an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid, and Mark Herring (2014-2022), who was defeated for a third term by Mr. Miyeras in 2021.

Virginia seldom elects a Governor of the same party as the incumbent President; the opposing party streak was only broken once since 1977 by Terry McAuliffe’s win in 2013. This historical trend notwithstanding, holding the Governor’s mansion this cycle was always going to be a heavy lift for Republicans in a state that has, since 2008, been getting bluer.

Before diving into the individual statewide races and legislative elections, it is important to address some political realities. In 2008, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia in a Presidential election since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. The Commonwealth had been reliably Republican at the federal level, but things took a turn for Republicans when Virginia, particularly Northern Virginia, became more diverse and when college-educated voters drifted toward the Democratic Party. Rural Virginia has become much more favorable for Republicans, but the suburbs have trended in favor of Democrats dramatically in recent years.

Put simply: the political geography for Republicans was untenable and time may have officially run out. This election is also notable for the fact that there is not a single candidate on either ticket from the Northern Virginia region, marking the shift of the center of Virginia’s political universe from the DC suburbs to the growing Richmond-area, where the suburbs and exurbs are seeing significant inward migration.

For the first time in Virginia’s history, the Commonwealth will have a female Governor. Earle-Sears and Spanberger both ran unopposed in their respective party’s primary. Initially, this proved to be a sore spot for both candidates going into the general election. More firebrand members of the GOP considered Earle-Sears as the establishment’s candidate. Former state Sen. Amanda Chase and former Delegate Dave LaRock were unable to collect enough signatures to challenge the Lt. Gov. for the party’s nomination. On the Democratic side, state legislators privately expressed concern that Spanberger running unopposed would harm the party’s appeal to Black voters, a reliably Democratic demographic. Rumors abounded that Rep. Bobby Scott would jump in the race, but he never did. Concerns regarding Spanberger’s support among Black voters now appear unfounded; Spanberger’s support among Black voters stands at 84% to Earle-Sears’s 6% according to the most recent CNU-Wason Center poll. The most recent poll from Suffolk has Spanberger’s support among Black voters to be 87% to Earle-Sears’s 9%. Statewide, Earle-Sears has failed to lead in a single poll, though the race has narrowed as Election Day draws near.

The results of the Roanoke University poll in August, months before a flurry of scandals rocked the state Democratic Party, showed a race that was tightening; this poll found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 7% (46%-39%). This is not to suggest that polling at 39% roughly two months before the election is in any way the sign of a successful campaign, however, but some cause for concern does exist for Virginia Democrats. The VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll from October 21 found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by only 7% (49%-42%), a disappointing showing for a party that was anticipating winning by double digits in November. Virginians do not register with a political party upon registering to vote in the Commonwealth, but among self-identified independents, Abigail Spanberger has consistently led Earle-Sears (48%-42%, 57%-32%, 35%-24% (20% undecided)). Spanberger also has more support over her respective party than Earle-Sears does with her own. The Democratic nominee also polls ahead of college-educated voters. Earle-Sears does maintain an edge among male voters and voters without a college education.

In terms of finances, Spanberger has vastly outraised and outspent Earle-Sears; Spanberger has spent more than double on ad buys compared to her opponent. Spanberger has roughly $3 million more cash on hand compared to Earle-Sears and has raised $30 million more as well. Initial early vote data was cause for concern for Democrats, but with the opening of satellite locations throughout the Commonwealth the early vote in heavily-Democratic areas has increased. Though, the Richmond-area, which has swung for the Democratic Party tremendously in recent years, dominates other heavily-Democratic areas like Northern Virginia. Early returns from Loudoun County in the 2024 Presidential election indicated what was to come for the remainder of the night and Democrats may very well have a Loudoun County problem in 2025 and in the future. Still, the overall trend in Virginia appears favorable to Democrats. In an off-year election with a Republican President (and in the midst of what could become the longest government shutdown in history), the Democratic ticket should improve on Harris’s performance in Northern Virginia.

Finally, that the GOP nominee has failed to lead in a single poll produced by any group indicates that Abigail Spanberger is, overwhelmingly, the favored candidate to win the Governor’s mansion; State Navigate gives Spanberger a 98% chance of winning the Gubernatorial election.

Polling for the race for Lt. Governor has always proved notoriously difficult. This race does not garner nearly as much attention as the race for Governor, naturally. Virginia is one of the few states that elect their Lt. Governor separately from their Governor. In 2005, Virginia elected Tim Kaine (D) to be Governor while electing Bill Bolling (R) to be Lt. Governor (additionally, Bob McDonnell (R) was elected Attorney General in 2005 and would go on to win the 2009 Gubernatorial election). Seeing that Republicans have essentially given up on the race for Governor (instead turning their attention to the race for Attorney General), they are hoping John Reid is able to run a strong enough campaign that brings the many undecided voters in this race to support him. John Reid’s place on the ticket was briefly the subject of controversy. Reid’s candidacy is notable because he is the first openly gay man nominated for statewide office in Virginia, and his nomination comes at a time when the Commonwealth’s Constitution still contains a ban on same-sex marriage (one that is, thankfully, null and void so long as Obergefell remains precedent). Reid’s running mate at the top of the GOP ticket is quite openly hostile to same-sex marriage and protections against LGBT discrimination.

The Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor is state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi. Hashmi made history in 2019 by becoming the first Muslim woman elected to the Virginia State Senate and the Virginia General Assembly, defeating Glen Sturtevant in the blue wave. Hashmi has not polled as well as the top of the ticket. The same CNU-Wason poll that had Spanberger leading Earle-Sears among likely voters by 7% has Hashmi leading Reid by merely 2% with 7% undecided. The underperformance is seen across several polls: Suffolk University has Hashmi in a virtual tie with Reid (Reid polled ahead by 0.2%) and VCU’s Commonwealth Poll has Hashmi leading by 1% (the previous Commonwealth Poll had Hashmi leading by 4%).

The race for Lieutenant Governor is, if one is to believe polls, up in the air. Conventional wisdom, however, tells us that Hashmi should still be favored to win her race. What might explain this underperformance? Aside from scandals that have plagued Dem. Attorney General nominee Jay Jones is impacting the entire ticket to some degree, John Reid has run a very transparent campaign and a strong ground game. He addressed controversies quite frankly; he is driving himself across Virginia; he opens himself to questions and takes interviews from reporters every chance he gets. All of this while his Democratic opponent refused to engage in a debate. Despite a lackluster campaign from Senator Hashmi, she is likely the favored candidate in the race for Lieutenant Governor, even as she fails to poll as well as Spanberger. Though, there are warning signs for the Hashmi campaign: she is tied with Reid among independents (at 44%) according to CNU-Wason after previously leading by 12%. State Navigate predicts Hashmi will win her race by roughly 7% (a three percent underperformance compared to Spanberger) with an 89% chance of winning.

The race for Attorney General has proven to be much more promising for Republicans in the final weeks of the campaign. Jason Miyeras has been a relatively uncontroversial Attorney General. Those who oppose the Trump Administration are unsurprisingly and understandably upset with his decision to not challenge the administration, particularly as it pertains to drastic cuts in the federal workforce which is an issue particularly important to the Commonwealth. As a Republican in an off-year election with an unpopular Republican President, Miyeras was still going into his reelection facing political headwinds in a blue state. In October, a series of scandals breathed new life into the Virginia GOP. On October 1st, it was revealed that Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Jay Jones, was convicted of reckless driving; the former Delegate was caught travelling 116 mph on I-64 in New Kent County; he paid a $1500 fine and was sentenced to community service. It was later revealed that his community service hours were fulfilled working for his own PAC.

Days later, another scandal hit the Jones campaign, one with a much larger impact on the race. On October 3rd, National Review reported on text messages Jay Jones had sent to Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner in 2022 regarding House Speaker Todd Gilbert. In these texts, Jones fantasized about Gilbert’s children dying in the arms of their mother and said, “Spoiler alert: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.” Democrats were quick to condemn his remarks, but came short of calling for him to step down from the race for Attorney General. His decision to stay in the race could prove costly for Virginia Democrats and deny them a crucial executive position. Even before the scandal, the Miyeras campaign had the advantage on the Jones campaigns in fundraising.

Currently, Miyeras has raised more than $25 million while Jones has raised $14 million; Miyeras has roughly $2.4 million cash on hand and Jones has about $685,000 cash on hand. Post-scandal polling has been somewhat positive for the incumbent Attorney General. After consistently polling below his Democratic challenger, polls have indicated that Miyeras is in a virtual tie or leading his Jones. According to CNU-Wason, independent voters have swung 9 points toward Miyeras after the texting scandal was made public; CNU-Wason, Suffolk, and the VCU Wilder school have Miyeras leading by 1%, 4%, 3%, respectively. The odds have shifted in favor of Miyeras, but whether it will be enough remains to be seen. According to CNU-Wason, 55% of voters have heard of the text scandal. Among these voters, 47% say it is either very likely or somewhat likely to impact their vote and 56% of voters who have heard of the scandal and said it would impact their vote stated that it would make them less likely to support the Democratic candidate. In another era, one that is not engulfed in hyperpartisanship, a scandal like this would end Jones’s campaign and political career entirely. State Navigate has Jones defeating Miyeras by 3% with a 72% chance of winning, but the odds continue to drop.

Democrats are anticipating doing quite well in the race for control of the House of Delegates. Since the 2023 legislative elections, Democrats have a majority of one seat in both chambers of the General Assembly. Every seat in the House of Delegates is up for grabs every two years, and Democrats are expected to pick up several seats in the lower House. Republicans are certainly on defense this cycle and, unless there are surprises on election night, are not likely to flip any seats from the Democratic Party. There are 13 Republican-held districts that Democrats could flip; these districts are in the Richmond suburbs, along the I-64 corridor near Williamsburg, the I-95 corridor near Fredericksburg, the DC suburbs and exurbs, and one in Southwest Virginia. Republican odds in these districts display the changing political geography that will make electoral success in Virginia a heavier lift for the GOP. The individual profiles of these districts help to explain the trouble Republicans face.

The most embattled Republican incumbent is Delegate David Owen, who represents District 57. District 57 encompasses the west end of Henrico and expanding suburbs in Goochland County. This district is fairly educated and only a plurality of residents had been born in Virginia. Owen only narrowly won his previous election in 2023 even as his Democratic opponent was embroiled in a sex scandal. The odds are that Del. Owen will be a one-term member of the lower House; Harris won this district by 9.4% and it is the Republican seat that is most likely to flip. There are two more seats in the Richmond-area that may slip from Republican control: District 73 and District 75. In District 73, Mark Earley, Jr. won his first term by 9% in 2023. The following year, Kamala Harris narrowly carried the district by 1.1%. This is the most leftward-trending district in the House of Delegates with significant inward migration from other states. If Del. Earley is able to win reelection, his political career may be on borrowed time. Carrie Coyner represents a district that voted for Harris by an even larger margin: 6.6%. District 75 is only plurality white (47.5%). This data is important because the shift in the suburbs, particularly the Richmond suburbs, shows that Republicans continue to have difficulty winning college-educated voters and diversifying suburbs. There are few greater examples of the GOP losing what was once a core constituency than the shift in Chesterfield and Henrico counties. Delegate Kim Taylor is a Republican representing a plurality-Black district that stretches from Dinwiddie County to Surry County and encompasses the city of Petersburg. This is another district primed for pick up for the Democrats. One thing to note is that Del. Coyner and Del. Taylor have historically overperformed expectations and may be able to do so again.

Shifting our focus to the I-64 corridor and the Hampton Roads, there are four seats Democrats could pick up here. The most likely flip here is District 71, represented by Amanda Batten. This district includes Williamsburg, a heavily-Democratic college town, the suburbs in James City County, and rural New Kent County; it voted for Harris by 4.9%. James City County is a swing county (one that voted for Youngkin by nearly 6% and Harris by about the same margin), the few rural parts of this district are not likely to make up for the swing Republicans can expect against them in this political environment. The neighboring 69th District is fairly educated and includes York County, a county that has steadily become slightly more competitive. A majority of residents in District 69 were also born outside of Virginia. This is an expanding suburban district with significant residential development, a common trend among districts in Virginia that are increasingly less favorable for Republicans. While Chad Green won this district unopposed in 2023, he is only a slight favorite to win reelection this cycle. District 86 encompasses parts of York, the city of Poquoson and parts of the city of Hampton and is represented by A.C. Cordoza; Democrats are slight favorites to flip this district.

District 89 includes parts of the city of Suffolk and parts of the city of Chesapeake. The Republican incumbent, Baxter Ennis, is retiring and Democrats are favored to win this Harris +3.2 seat. In Southwest Virginia, Democrats are eager to unseat Del. Chris Obenshain in a rematch against Lily Franklin, who he only defeated by 183 votes in 2023. It is a district President Trump carried by 2.2%, but Democrats have run a strong get out the vote effort in heavily-Democratic Blacksburg, a college town home to Virginia Tech.

Three more pick up opportunities exist for Democrats, and one relatively long shot opportunity, in Northern Virginia and along the I-95 corridor. Democrats are anticipating flipping District 22 in Prince William County, currently represented by Del. Ian Lovejoy. The greatest threat to Del. Lovejoy’s reelection effort is Linton Hall, a suburb that tends to swing. Republicans are slightly favored to win District 30, a seat encompassing western Loudoun County and northern Fauquier County. Republican Del. Geary Higgins won by 6.4% in 2023; President Trump carried the seat by 1.2% in 2024. This is a wealthy, predominantly white college-educated district. Another pick up opportunity exists in Stafford County, another growing suburb as people move farther away from Washington, D.C, with District 64. Del. Paul Milde won his race in 2023 by 9%, but the seat voted for President Trump by a mere 1.9%. While Republicans are slightly favored to win here, the final margin is expected to be closer; this is indicative of the changing political geography. Another pick up opportunity, albeit a longshot, is with District 66. Del. Bobby Orock has been a member of the House of Delegates since 1990 and won his most reelection to the chamber by 10.5%. The seat only voted for President Trump by 2.3%, however, and includes areas of Spotsylvania County along I-95 that are experiencing inward migration from Northern Virginia and other states.

There are three districts that are massive longshots for Virginia Democrats, but could be ones to watch on a spectacularly good night for Democrats. These are districts 34, 49, and 52. District 34 is in the Shenandoah Valley and is currently represented by Del. Tony Wilt. This district includes the city of Harrisonburg, a reliably Democratic college town home to James Madison University. Del. Wilt won here by more than 13% in 2023, but President Trump only carried the district by 6.5%. It is a longshot, and while money doesn’t win elections, Democrats are raising more money in this district and outspending Republicans. Districts 49 and 52 are even greater longshots, but could be somewhat interesting. District 49 includes the city of Danville and parts of rural Pittsylvania and Halifax counties; it is a district President Trump won by roughly 8%. Del. Danny Marshall faces Gary Miller, a member of the Danville City Council. Finally, District 52 includes all of the city of Lynchburg and is represented by Del. Wendell Walker. This is one of the few college cities where Republicans benefit from increased turnout among college students as neighboring Campbell County is home to the ultra-conservative Liberty University.

Four Republican-held seats that Democrats are hoping to flip are majority white college-educated (districts 22, 30, 71, and 73) and each of these seats Republicans are being out-fundraised and outspent. Money does not win elections, but it certainly helps. There are two seats that are majority-minority (districts 75 and 82) where Republicans are hoping for depressed turnout among non-white voters or decent crossover appeal. Fortunately for Virginia Republicans, Del. Coyner (HD-75) is among the more moderate members of the caucus and Del. Taylor (HD-82) was the only Republican in 2023 to win a seat that voted for Biden by double digits. Four districts represented by Republicans have a population where a majority of residents are natural-born citizens from outside Virginia (districts 57, 64, 69, and 71) and the GOP is favored to win only two of these. Significant inward migration from outside the Commonwealth has led to rapid suburban growth, a trend that only accelerates Republican back-sliding places like Chesterfield and Henrico counties. Lastly, Democrats have consistently led in generic ballot polls for control of the House of Delegates. According to CNU-Wason, Democrats are up 8% in the generic ballot.

Roanoke College’s final poll before the November 4th election shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 10 points (51%-41%). Downballot, the race for Lt. Gov. and Attorney General appear much more competitive. Hashmi enjoys only a 2 point lead over Reid (42%-40%) with many voters still undecided in this race. The large portion of undecided voters is likely in part because of name recognition. It is probably safe to assume that most of these undecided voters will vote for the candidate of the same party as their vote for Governor. In the race for Attorney General, Roanoke found that Miyeras enjoys an 8 point lead over Jones (46-38). Again, many voters are undecided. Two things may be at play here: either many of these undecided voters are shy Jones supporters who do not intend on splitting their ticket or the text scandal has genuinely changed the state of this race. A majority of likely voters (80%) had heard of or read about the text scandal. Of those who have already voted early, 87% said that they would have voted for Jones anyway. Only 1% would have switched their vote to Miyeras and 5% said they would not have voted. Early voters tend to be much more partisan; the mind of an early voter is usually already made up and there might be little that could be done to change their intention of voting for the party for which they typically cast their vote. Miyeras will have to hope that, while only about 40% of Virginians intend on supporting the Republicans for Gov. and Lt. Gov., enough of these undecided voters do truly exist and that they are more willing to split their ticket or leave the ballot blank as opposed to voting for Jones than those who already voted. Compared to Roanoke’s poll from August, Spanberger has improved greatly while her running mates are still struggling to conjure as much support as the top of the ticket. That an appetite for dramatic ticket splitting actually still exists remains to be seen until November 4th.

I am not under any illusion that the race for Virginia Governor is one that is winnable for Republicans, barring some tremendous surprise on election night. The primary, and frankly only question, based on the state of the race this close to Election Day is: by just how much will Spanberger win? If Spanberger can match Biden’s 10% margin from his win in 2020, she will have had a good night. If she can overperform Biden’s 2020 margin, she will have had an excellent night. However, a margin of victory similar to Kamala Harris’s in 2024 will prove to be a disappointing result for a party that anticipated a blowout; this would also be fairly stunning underperformance compared to Ralph Northam’s nearly 9% margin of victory in 2017. It may have been that if Republicans nominated a candidate more palatable to a state that is socially tolerant and still fiscally responsible, they could have maintained control of the Governor’s mansion, or at least put up a stronger fight. Earle-Sears’s decision to focus on controversial cultural issues at a time when the primary concern for voters in both parties is affordability and the state of the economy also did her very little favors aside from shoring up support from those whose support she never had to work to earn.

Republicans have put up a much stronger fight in the race for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. This is in part due to candidate quality and the quality of the campaigns (from both sides, for better or worse). While Hashmi has consistently underperformed Spanberger in most polls, she is probably still favored to win her race while underperforming Spanberger by a few percentage points. Nothing is ever guaranteed, however, and if independents due balk from the Democratic downballot an upset may not be outside the realm of possibility. The race for Attorney General is the Virginia GOP’s greatest opportunity to avoid a complete wipeout. After weeks of scandal after scandal, the embattled Democratic nominee is not nearly as favored to win his race. It could be, between the time this is posted and Election Day, that Miyeras’s odds of winning surge enough for him to be favored. Regardless, the race for Attorney General will be a nailbiter and could be decided by tens of thousands of votes. Attorney General Miyeras will need enough ticket splitting to overcome a significant gap between the nominees at the top ticket; he will need Spanberger voters to support his reelection effort or leave the ballot for Attorney General blank. The race will ultimately be decided by independents and Democratic partisans who have to determine whether the incumbent President or the morality of Jay Jones’s objectively callous and inhuman remarks is more important.

In an era of hyperpartisanship, it remains to be seen whether a scandal like Jay Jones’s can influence enough voters to split their ticket. Finally, Democrats remain overwhelmingly favored to maintain their control of the House of Delegates. By my guess, Democrats could very well pick up 8 seats in the lower House or more. Sentiment among likely or registered voters supports this assumption. It is not outside the realm of possibility that, due to political trends and worsening political geography for Republicans, that Democrats are able to achieve a supermajority in the House of Delegates. Republicans would need an exceptionally good night, given the environment, for GOP candidates to exceed expectations in their individual races for the State House, but this would only minimize their losses; retaking control of the House of Delegates is an incredibly slim possibility for Virginia Republicans. Virginia Republicans would be lucky to achieve a tie in the composition of the lower House.

As a Virginian (and a proud one at that), perhaps I am biased when I say we are an intriguing voting block, to say the least. Suffolk University found that 58% of voters felt the U.S. was on the wrong track while a plurality of voters (45%) felt Virginia was heading in the right direction. Earlier in the race, everyone believed this election would be unexciting, that Democrats would sweep statewide office by considerable margins across the board. That may have been a foolish assumption; the results and take-aways from the upcoming election could be far more intriguing than we may have expected less than a year ago. Virginia Democrats remain favored to have, at best, an excellent night or, at least, a decent night after a ticket that was plagued with scandal.

New Jersey

In the 2024 Presidential election, New Jersey produced the secondest largest swing toward Republicans (10%), second only to New York (10.5%), largely thanks to Trump’s inroads with minority communities and in denser areas of the state. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. New Jersey has not elected a Republican Governor since Chris Christie’s landslide reelection victory in 2013. In 2017, Phil Murphy defeated then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by more than 14%. In 2021, Gov. Murphy faced a serious challenge to his reelection effort against Jack Ciattarelli (R), a former member of the New Jersey General Assembly. Gov. Murphy won reelection by only 3.22%. This year, Mr. Ciattarelli is once again the GOP nominee for Governor. The Democratic nominee is U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill. Democrats are hoping to become the first party to win a third consecutive term since 1965.

Polling for the race for New Jersey Governor has shown a much more competitive race than the one for Governor of Virginia, but with Sherrill as the favored candidate by 5-10%. A poll released by Quantus Insights shows Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 49%-46% while Ciattarelli leads among learners by 2%. The same poll shows 72% of New Jersey voters having not voted yet, but with Democrats leading in early vote. 35% of Democrats have already voted; 24% of Republicans have already voted; and 23% of independents and unaffiliated voters have already voted. Of the early vote, 75% of Democrats have voted by mail and 55% of Republicans have voted early in-person. 49% of respondents indicated that they plan to vote on Election Day. 72% of respondents feel more motivated to vote this year than in previous elections; Republicans are slightly more motivated compared to Democrats (77%-70%). Ciattarelli leads among white voters (53%-46%) while Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by 30% among non-white voters (59%-29%). On the issues important to voters, results vary. Ciattarelli leads Sherrill on New Jersey’s economy and jobs (46%-40%), the state budget and government spending (45%-39%), taxes (44%-37%), and crime and safety (45%-39%). Among likely voters, Sherrill leads on the following issues: cost of living and affordability (42%-41%), education (47%-40%), transportation and infrastructure (41%-40%), and healthcare (50%-35%).

As Election Day draws closer, partisans are lining up behind their candidate. 93% of Democrats indicate that they will vote for Sherrill (6% increase from July) and 96% of Republicans indicate that they will support Ciattarelli (up 10% since July). Ideologically, Democrats consider Sherrill much more moderate than Republicans while everyone considers Ciattarelli to be “very conservative.” Quinnipiac shows a slightly less competitive race, but with Sherrill not clearing 50%; Quinnipiac has Sherrill leading by 6%. Ciattarelli does lead among independents; 48% back Ciattarelli while 42% back Sherrill. The gender divide among the candidates is stark. Ciattarelli enjoys an 11% lead among male voters (53%-42%), but Sherrill’s lead among female voters is nearly double that (57%-36%). The 2025 election for New Jersey is on track to be the most expensive election in the state’s history. Outside spending groups have bolstered Sherrill’s campaign by spending $12.2 million to support her, compared to $7.3 million in support of Ciattarelli. Sherrill has a slight fundraising advantage. Sherrill raised $17.5 million since the end of June while Ciattarelli raised $16.5 million in the same period. She also reported $2.5 million more cash on hand. Polling and fundraising indicate that this is a close race.

Along with the race for Governor, New Jersey voters will decide the composition of the state Assembly. Democrats enjoy a majority with 52 seats in the 80-member lower House and a majority of 25 seats in the 40-member state Senate. One Senate seat is up for grabs and is not expected to be competitive. In New Jersey, each legislative district elects two members to the Assembly. Only two districts have split representation: the 8th, including parts of Burlington and Atlantic counties and the 30th, covering Lakewood and parts of Monmouth County. The race in the 30th District is expected to be close. While usually a reliably-Republican district, incumbent Alexander Schnall (D) defeated Edward Thompson, who is running again with incumbent Sean Kean (R) this cycle, two years ago by winning Lakewood. Lakewood is the largest portion of the district with a large Orthodox Jewish population; Schnall received his master’s degree in Talmudic Law from Beth Medrash Govoha in Lakewood. The race in the 8th district is also expected to be quite close. There are about 500 more registered Republicans in this district than Democrats and the contest this year is a rematch from two years ago. Republicans Michael Torrissi Jr., an incumbent Assemblyman, and Brandon Umba are running against Democrats Andrea Katz, who defeated Umba two years ago, and Anthony Angelozzi. Republicans are playing defense in one district: the 21st. This district includes portions of Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, and Union counties. Despite voter registration skewing for Democrats, this has been a Republican district for the last four decades. Both incumbents are Republicans.

In the Southwestern part of the Garden State, Democratic incumbents in the 3rd district are defending their seats in a part of the state that has leaned farther to the right in the past 8 years. In the 11th district, Democrats hold all of the seats representing part of Monmouth County and enjoy a voter registration advantage of about 10,000, but a plurality of voters are not affiliated with a political party. Finally, the 16th district had historically been solidly Republican, but in 2021 Democrats gained an advantage in voter registration (37%-27%). Unaffiliated voters could help Republicans oust the Democratic incumbents if there is swing against the incumbent party. A co/efficient poll from October 23-27 found that Democrats enjoy an advantage in the generic ballot for control of the State Assembly by a margin of 49% for Democrats and 45% for Republicans.

While the race for New Jersey Governor is shaping up to be more competitive than the race for Virginia Governor, Mikie Sherrill is still the favored candidate. Ciattarelli does not benefit from the fact that his party is the incumbent party in the White House. A silver lining for his campaign is that the state did experience the second largest rightward swing in 2024; President Trump only lost the Garden State by fewer than 6%. If Ciattarelli is to have any hope of winning, he will need to keep Republicans in line, maintain the support among independents, garner support from enough Democrats, and make the same inroads among minority communities that the GOP standard-bearer did in 2024. Otherwise, Democrats will win a third consecutive term for Governor for the first time since 1965. Even in a scenario where Ciattarelli wins the gubernatorial election, it is likely that Democrats maintain control of the State Assembly.

New York City

The mayoral election in New York City is between Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, fmr. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and political activist Curtis Sliwa. Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary by more than 12% once NYC Comptroller Brad Lander was eliminated after the first round of voting (Lander had garnered more than 11% of the vote). Ordinarily, this race might not be terribly exciting. The mayor of NYC will, for the foreseeable future, always be a Democrat. However, this race is pitting the more moderate, capitalist wing of the Democratic Party (championed by Mr. Cuomo) against the progressive, populist wing (championed by Mr. Mamdani). The internal civil war within the Democratic Party is on full display. On October 29th, Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat representing a competitive House district on Long Island, endorsed Mr. Cuomo on X (formerly known as Twitter) saying, “I’m a Democratic Capitalist, not a Democratic Socialist. I endorse Andrew Cuomo. I can not back a declared socialist with a thin resume to run the most complex city in America. We need leaders who will fight crime, not undermine the police. Who will create jobs, not harm the economy. Who will keep taxes down, not make it more expensive for middle class families to live here.” Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican from Rockland County who represents part of the Hudson Valley, stated that voters in NYC should choose Cuomo over Mamdani.

Mr. Mamdani has run a sensational campaign online that has appealed to a large swath of voters, but he has mostly played it safe and has avoided taking a stance on contentious ballot measures that relate to housing, a crucial issue for the city, and on education. On education, Mr. Mamdani is seeking to overhaul the city’s charter school system that has significantly helped poor and minority students. Instead, Mr. Mamdani is vowing to “fully invest” in district schools that have seen a 10% decline in enrollment since 2020 (NYC charter schools saw a 14% increase in enrollment during the same period). Mr. Cuomo is vowing to fight for charter schools. The fight over education is notable because the communities who most benefit from greater accessibility to charter schools supported Mr. Cuomo in the Democratic primary.

After Eric Adams, the incumbent mayor, dropped out of the race and endorsed Mr. Cuomo the polls have narrowed. Mr. Sliwa, the Republican, continues to garner enough support that could deny Mr. Cuomo the votes he would need to defeat Mr. Mamdani; he has ignored the calls for him to drop out and endorse Mr. Cuomo. Despite polling indicating Mr. Mamdani is the favored candidate to win the mayoral election, there are signs of life for the Cuomo campaign. First, early voting data at the City Council level shows higher Democratic early voting in City Council districts where Mr. Cuomo led Mr. Mamdani. Additionally, voters over the age of 55 make up more than half of the early vote turnout; in the Democratic primary, voters between the ages of 25-34 dominated the race.

Most importantly, affordability has been the most important issue for NYC voters; affordability and the cost of living is the most important issue for voters in every election this November. The question is whether voters in NYC decide to entrust an avowed socialist with the economy of the wealthiest city in the world. His policies could be disastrous for the city. Mr. Mamdani may very well become the next mayor of NYC. He certainly represents the growing base of the Democratic Party and having been embraced by the party and receiving the endorsement of Hakeem Jeffries (albeit a lukewarm endorsement), he will find himself in the spotlight and under a microscope. Regardless of who triumphs on Tuesday night, this will likely not be the year that New Yorkers elect a mayor who they won’t hate in six months time.

By all accounts, November 4, 2025 should be a good night for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City. In Virginia, Democrats enjoy a worsening political geography for Republicans and an opponent whose mouth was made perfectly for her foot to fit into. Downballot Democrats may benefit from Spanberger’s coattails, if they are significant enough. The Virginia Attorney General race could be the only silver lining for Republicans this November. It is nearly certain that Virginia Democrats will make considerable gains in the House of Delegates. New Jersey may shape up to be much more competitive than Virginia, but with a Republican in the White House and a majority of respondents saying President Trump is a “major factor” in the race it is likely that New Jersey Democrats maintain total control of state government. In NYC, voters will pick their poison. With a Republican candidate whose campaign is dead-on-arrival at the ballot box, it is likely that Mr. Mamdani will be the next mayor. Ultimately, the only polls that matter are the ones that close on Tuesday night.