The Politics of Abortion Are So Incredibly Bad for Republicans
Issue 1 Was a Disaster for Republicans in Ohio and Nationally
On Sunday while I was en route to the Washington, DC area, I had a conversation with a friend and former colleague about competitive Senate races. We went through the races that we thought were competitive, depending on who Republicans nominate in primary races. Both of us acknowledge that it’s probable, if candidate quality isn’t an issue, that Republicans will take back the Senate and have a narrow majority going into 2025. Republicans need to net only two seats to win back the majority.
As we were going through the states that would see tough races, my friend mentioned Ohio being a good spot for a pickup since the state has moved increasingly toward Republicans in recent cycles. I cautioned him that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has managed to survive in the state despite being a progressive. Brown is a populist, and his politics have played well given Ohio’s working-class, union-friendly electorate. He was a target in 2018 and beat Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) by roughly 7 percentage points. However, Ohio’s tilt toward Republicans has gotten only stronger since then.
Even with that Republican tilt, last night’s defeat of Issue 1 shows the difficult politics of an issue like abortion in what is becoming a red state. Issue 1 wasn’t directly about abortion. It was a constitutional amendment that would’ve increased the threshold for ballot initiatives to amend the Ohio Constitution from 50 percent plus one vote to 60 percent plus one vote. If adopted by voters, an amendment to include abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution that’ll be on the ballot this fall would’ve faced the larger threshold.
What happened in Ohio last night is more interesting than what happened in Kansas in August 2022. In 2019, the Kansas Constitution was interpreted by state courts to protect abortion rights. The Kansas State Legislature approved an amendment to the state’s constitution, Amendment 2, or the “Value Them Both Amendment.” Amendment 2 would’ve allowed lawmakers to regulate abortion.
Voters defeated Amendment 2 by 19 points. Pundits said at the time that the results show how difficult the abortion issue was for Republicans in a deep red state like Kansas. While abortion is certainly a tricky issue for Republicans, I spoke with a Kansas lawmaker at the end of last year who told me that he’s not sure Amendment 2 would’ve failed had it not included language that extended regulation of abortion to “circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest, or when necessary to save the life of the mother.” In other words, Amendment 2 was viewed as too extreme, or so this lawmaker suggested.
Ohio law allows abortion until viability, which could be up to 24 weeks of gestation, but the Ohio Legislature enacted a new law that prohibits abortion after six weeks. Many women don’t know they’re pregnant after six weeks. The new law, however, is currently stuck in state courts.
I’m not a fan of direct democracy—by which, I mean voter-led ballot initiatives—but it exists in many states. That being said, I find it, speaking diplomatically, poor form to try to change the rules for an initiated constitutional amendment that had already been approved, which was the case here. The initiated amendment was approved in March. The legislation that triggered Issue 1 didn’t clear the Ohio Legislature until May.
Issue 1 was a proxy war for the abortion issue. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for the Republican nomination for Senate, made clear that Issue 1 was “100 percent about keeping a radical, pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution.” The abortion rights amendment that will be on the ballot this fall polled at nearly 58 percent support near the end of July. Roughly 32 percent opposed the amendment. Almost 70 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 support it.
Does the failure of Issue 1 mean that Ohio Republicans face electoral problems in November? I’m not willing to go that far. It certainly helps someone like Sen. Sherrod Brown, who opposed Issue 1, against his Republican challengers, each of whom is running on anti-abortion platforms, but the abortion rights amendment will be on the ballot in November 2023, not November 2024.
Nevertheless, Issue 1 shows that the politics of abortion remain incredibly tough for Republicans, and the further Republican legislatures go to restrict access to abortion, in spite of public opinion, the more Republicans are going to find electoral challenges. What’s concerning for Republicans is that Arizona, which has been trending purple and may be a must-win for the White House and Senate, might be next.