There Are Only Four Toss Up States in the Initial 2024 Presidential Ratings

The Map Shows a Difficult Path Ahead for Republicans

The Cook Political Report has released its initial ratings for the 2024 presidential race. Only four states are considered toss-ups on the early map. Those states are Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The lay of the land can—and probably will—change between now and election day, so no one should draw conclusions from ratings released in July 2023 for an election that takes place in November 2024. We have a ways to go.

Be that as it may, the landscape is tough for Republicans in a couple of these states. Recently, National Review looked at the financial problems of several state Republican parties. The Arizona Republican Party has only $23,000 in its federal account. Keep in mind that there’s also a Senate race in Arizona this cycle, and, supposedly, failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has her eyes on that race. Arizona Republicans would be better off not running a candidate and backing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who’ll have a general election challenge from her left by way of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ). Republicans also have to defend Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ), who’s in a competitive district.

Sure, the Arizona Republican Party will raise money between now and when these races heat up. Outside groups may also come in to support the eventual Republican presidential and Senate nominees, as well as Rep. Ciscomani. Still, early on, it doesn’t look good for Republicans in what has become a very competitive state. I’m being diplomatic here, but the state party is struggling.

Another state on the list is Georgia. My home state. The Georgia Republican Party spent $340,000 in legal fees related to the ongoing investigation into fraudulent electors. The Georgia Republican Party apparatus has been roundly criticized for its actions in 2022 when it did little to defend Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) from a primary challenge backed by the ex-president. Gov. Kemp easily dispatched that primary challenge. He started his own federal super political action committee (PAC), in addition to his own state PAC. These PACs are directly competing for dollars with the Georgia Republican Party, which has $957,298 in its federal account.

The good news for Republicans in Georgia is there aren’t any Senate races this cycle. It’s unlikely that any of the congressional seats are competitive. Some may say that we should keep an eye on GA-02 since it’s a D+3 seat and that a good Republican candidate could make it an interesting race. Rep. Bishop won by 10 points in 2022, in what was supposed to be a “red wave” year. (Narrator: It wasn’t a red wave year.) Considering that Republicans will have to pour millions into the state for purposes of the presidential race, I don’t know that it’s a serious thought.

Pennsylvania is going to be a battleground, for sure. I think it’s the state that decides the election. There’s not enough polling data this early in the race between President Biden and the ex-president to say much. President Biden has led by as much as 7 points and trailed by as little as 1 point in polls released this year. The popularity of Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), assuming his approval rating remains high, may help bolster President Biden. Although he’s a Republican target, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is likely to win reelection, which may also help President Biden. I just don’t see many voters who vote for Sen. Casey and don’t also vote for President Biden.

Wisconsin is also going to be a battleground, but we have even less polling there than we do in Pennsylvania. That said, the most recent poll, released literally today, shows President Biden with a 9-point lead over the ex-president. There’s also a Senate race in Wisconsin, and Republicans don’t have a top-tier candidate as of yet. Making matters worse, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, a controversial figure, may run. That’ll hurt Republicans as well.

Based on the initial ratings, President Biden has an easier path to win than his most likely opponent.