Trump Is Tanking with Independents
And the Republican majority in the House may be the first casualty
The disconnect between public sentiment and Capitol Hill has always made me scratch my head. It doesn’t take a doctorate in political science to know that Americans aren’t happy with how things are going. Last week, I visited with a friend who works on the Hill. We just caught up, and I said something about how bad polling is for Republicans, and I asked, “What is leadership seeing that I’m not?” The friend commented that leadership sees the country in thirds—a third Republican, a third Democratic, and a third independent. The inference is that leadership is really only concerned with keeping their base and just enough of independents to win elections.
I had my iPad with me, so I showed him the data from The Economist and YouGov weekly tracking poll to show him just how dire the situation is with independents. First, let’s look at Trump’s approval rating with registered voters. He came in at 56 percent disapproval in the latest survey. That’s tied for his worst disapproval rating. His approval rating is a paltry 43 percent. That’s his lowest approval among registered voters, and he has hit it multiple times, including the past five weeks in a row.
Now, Trump’s approval rating among independents is challenging to parse. The Economist and YouGov don’t separate registered voters by party affiliation. In other words, independents include registered voters, but it’s not limited to them. These are self-identified independents among all adults surveyed.
Trump’s disapproval among independents has been at 57 percent or higher since mid-June. In fact, Trump’s disapproval rating with independents has been 60 percent or higher in 18 out of the past 23 weekly surveys. His average approval rating with independents is 23 percent. His average disapproval rating is 62 percent. The numbers are absolutely horrible for Trump and Republicans. It’s hard to win elections when nearly two-thirds of independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
What’s hurting Trump with independents? A couple of issues are causing the rift. The first is the economy. Only 29 percent of independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy while 62 percent disapprove. That’s a slight improvement from the 23/67 mark in late September. Still, Trump has been consistently between 23 percent and 29 percent on the economy since the survey that was conducted from August 29 through September 2. He’s been in the 20s in all but two of the surveys since late July.
Consistently, the top issue for independents has been “inflation/prices.” Essentially, the cost of living and affordability. According to the latest survey, 25 percent of independents rank inflation and prices as their most important issue. “Jobs and the economy” is the second-most-important issue, with 15 percent. Trump’s approval rating on inflation among independents is 21 percent, according to the latest survey. Nearly three–quarters—72 percent—of independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance on the issue.
CNN had a segment on Friday on Trump’s numbers with independents. The numbers are so bad that CNN’s polling analyst, Harry Enten, said, “You can’t win with this. If this holds for next year’s midterm election wave. Adios, amigos. Goodbye. See you later to that House Republican majority and that Senate Republican majority. Very much in danger as well.”
I’m skeptical that there’s a real chance that Republicans could lose the Senate. Yeah, Democrats may narrow the Republican majority, assuming Democrats can keep Georgia and Michigan. They have an outside shot of an evenly divided Senate. The only way a majority happens is if Ohio or Texas becomes competitive. Republicans’ majority in the House is most likely gone, though, and that’s why the insistence of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and other top-ranking Republicans to continue to stand by Trump is so puzzling. It’s never a surprise to see a party stick with a president who is from the same party. It’s just the extent to which Johnson and others deny the present reality. Trump is a lame duck. They should treat him as such.