Voters Break from Trump on Job Performance, Iran, and Economic Agenda
New survey reveals deep skepticism among independents toward Trump’s leadership
A new national survey conducted by the Bullfinch Group for Exiled Policy highlights a growing divide between former President Donald Trump and registered voters, showing sharp disapproval of his performance and widespread opposition to his top policy priorities. The polling is available for download below in two parts. Additional polling data will be released later today.
The June 2025 poll, which surveyed 1,006 registered voters nationwide, found Trump’s overall job approval rating at 43%, with 54% disapproving. But a closer look at the numbers reveals a significant gap between partisan loyalty and independent sentiment.
85% of Republicans approve of Trump’s performance.
87% of Democrats disapprove.
Among independents, just 37% approve, while 59% disapprove.
That disapproval extends to key policy areas, including national security and economic legislation.
Voters Want Congress Involved Before War with Iran
With tensions escalating between the United States and Iran—culminating in U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities shortly after the poll was conducted—voters overwhelmingly said they want Congress to play a role in any decision to go to war.
63% of registered voters believe the president should obtain congressional approval before engaging in military conflict with Iran.
Only 12% believe the president has unilateral authority.
Independent voters largely align with the majority, favoring a more cautious, constitutionally grounded approach to the use of military force.
Trump’s Economic Plan Lacks Support
Voters were similarly cool to Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping tax and spending measure touted by the administration as a fix for economic uncertainty.
53% of registered voters oppose the bill.
Only 33% support it.
58% of independents oppose the bill while 26% support it.
Concerns appear to stem from fears of fiscal fallout:
61% of voters believe the plan will increase the federal deficit.
51% believe it would raise their personal taxes.
Even before any new legislation passes, 73% of registered voters said they are concerned about the $245 billion increase in the national deficit since Trump returned to office.
Takeaway: Independents Remain a Barrier to Trump’s Broader Appeal
While Trump continues to enjoy deep loyalty within the Republican Party, the data suggest that independent voters remain unconvinced—not just about his style, but about his substance. On issues ranging from war powers to fiscal responsibility, independents are signaling a demand for more caution, more collaboration, and more accountability.
The Bullfinch Group conducted the national survey for Exiled Policy from June 17-20, 2025. The results among the 1,223 adults have a margin of error of ± 2.8 percent, and the results among the 1,006 registered voters (RV) have a margin of error of ± 3.1 percent.
An earlier version of the post included responses regarding support or opposition to the “One Big Beautiful Bill” after learning of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rep. Thomas Massie’s concerns about its impact on debt and deficit. Those data can be found in the full release of the poll posted during the afternoon of June 23. I apologize for the confusion.