Way Too Early Look At the 2024 Election

Which Way Are the Presidential and Senate Races Heading?

The global populist movement had some victories and some setbacks in recent days. Far-right parties in France and Germany made gains in campaigns for the European Parliament. However, in Hungry, authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s party had its worst showing in years. Orbán, who has fashioned himself as a little Putin, is something of a poster for the far-right in the United States.

Closer to home, we’re a little less than five months away from our own elections. This far out, all we can really say is that the presidential election is going to be super close. It has been a while since I wrote about the election, but it’ll be here before you know it. So, I thought this might be a good time to take a look to see where we are. I hope I’ll be able to do more posts like this in the weeks ahead. It’s a time thing. I’m balancing work, learning to be a step-dad, writing and recording music (it’s a hobby), and yard work.

Before we get to the presidential race, though, we need to start with the Senate. Why? The dynamics between competitive Senate races and the presidential race are very interesting.

2024 Senate Races: The competitive states cycle in the Senate are Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Each of these seats is currently held by a Democrat. Two of the seats (Arizona and Michigan) are open. Democrats have leads in each one of these races. In most instances, the leads aren’t large. Republicans are, of course, expected to pick up the open seat in West Virginia.

Although we can’t make assumptions this far out, Democrats are running strong in each of these races. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has run ahead of Kari Lake, the Republican nominee, in every poll this year. His lead has been as high as 13 points. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) has also led Dave McCormick in every poll this year in Pennsylvania. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has expanded her lead in recent polls against her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde.

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running ahead of former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan, but her leads are within or close to the margin of error. The only poll testing Slotkin against former Rep. Justin Amash had her up 8 points. There hasn’t been much polling out of Montana, but Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has led Republican Tim Sheehy in all of them. Of course, the race was close in two out of the three polls conducted. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has run ahead of her likely Republican challenger, Sam Brown, in most polls. The most recent poll, though, had Rosen and Brown deadlocked. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has led his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, in every poll, from 2 points to as many as 10 points.

However, we should also keep an eye on Maryland and, I suppose, Texas. Most expect Maryland to go Democratic no matter what, but Larry Hogan is a rare Republican who has won twice statewide. He’s a strong contender. That said, state elections are very different from federal elections. The Democratic nominee, Angela Alsobrooks, has a lot of institutional support, and the most recent poll out of the state had her up by 10 points over Hogan. Whether that poll is an outlier is a different question.

In Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has had leads over Rep. Colin Allred by as many as 13 points. Texas has trended in the wrong direction for Republicans, but no one can say it’s a purple state yet. Allred needs to define himself before Cruz does and get ahead on immigration and border security. If Allred can do that, he can make this a competitive race. Otherwise, it’s Cruz’s to lose.

Way Too Early Prediction: Republicans pick up one seat, but Democrats keep just enough to make it a tie. The majority will be determined by which party holds the vice presidency on January 20, 2025. That does mean, for a short time in January 2025, Democrats would have the majority even if Republicans win back the White House.

2024 Presidential Election: Let’s get this out of the way first. NATIONAL POLLS ARE USELESS. I don’t care if Biden is ahead, or Trump is ahead. National. Polls. Are. Useless. The national popular vote doesn’t matter. I think it’s important to gauge trends or point out that Republicans have won the popular vote only once since the 1992 presidential election. Still, it doesn’t matter.

States are what matters, so we’re looking at what happens in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. I’m less inclined to believe that Minnesota and Virginia are seriously in play for Trump or that Biden can win Georgia the second time around. Keep an eye on North Carolina, though. The Republican nominees for governor and attorney general are very far to the right and could make it interesting if Democrats can capitalize on that.

You’ll notice that there’s a lot of overlap between competitive Senate races and competitive states in the presidential election. Right now, there are way too many states where President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are running close together. There are other factors at play in this election that are really hard to guess how they’ll play.

There’s a notable independent candidate on the ballot, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and third-party candidates like Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, and Cornel West. I know Kennedy has polled “high”—which is to say, high for a candidate not from the two major parties—but candidates not from the two major parties tend to see their support decline the closer we get to an election.

There are other factors about this race that are worth noting. First, conventional wisdom is that Democrats do better among registered voters in polls than likely voters. Thus far in this cycle, the opposite seems to be true. President Biden is performing better with likely voters than registered voters. That’s something to watch as the race progresses.

Second, the debates may actually matter. Ordinarily, I would tell you that debates exist only for political junkies. For the first time in my adult life, the debates could be a deciding factor for undecided and independent voters. Remember, the first debate is this month—Thursday, June 27, at 9:00 pm on CNN—and President Biden will have to show the same vigor and grasp of the issues that he showed during the State of the Union address to come close to easing undecided and independent voters’ concerns about his age. Trump can’t just yell a lot and constantly cut off President Biden since his microphone will be cut off when he isn’t speaking. Then they’ll both have to do it again on September 10.

Third, will Trump’s recent felony conviction in New York come back to haunt him? He’s getting a reprieve in other cases because of prosecutorial stupidity in Fulton County, Georgia; a federal judge presiding over the documents case in Florida who is either scared of her own shadow or trying to help Trump out; and delays over appeals in the federal case over the attempt to subvert the election in the District of Columbia. Polling in the aftermath of the New York conviction has shown that 10 percent of Republicans are less likely to vote for Trump now than he’s a felon. Eighteen percent of independents said the same in a different poll from swing states. Will that matter in almost five months? Who knows. It doesn’t help Trump to lose support among his base and independent voters.

Fourth, how large will voter turnout be on election day? Everyone hates their choices this cycle, but the time to do something about it has long passed. I’ve heard from some that they expect turnout to be low and that this will benefit President Biden. I’m skeptical of that claim. President Biden has taken a hit with progressives over Israel. Does dissatisfaction over his policy toward Israel mean more to progressives than their dislike of Trump, who will undoubtedly be even more deferential to Israel? I don’t have any answer to that question right now. Trump’s base is highly motivated. The young voters who President Biden needs don’t seem motivated. I’m also skeptical that Black and Latino voters are more than marginally moving toward Trump. Still, in this election, even marginal movement could mean everything.

Independents are where the election will be decided. They have to weigh President Biden’s age against Trump’s chaos and mutterings of retribution against his political enemies. It’s too early to say where they’ll fall.

Finally, is President Biden’s support in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin stronger than polls are showing considering Democratic Senate incumbents or candidates have leads over their Republican challengers? Will wins for Democratic Senate incumbents or candidates in those states help President Biden? Again, it’s too soon to say. There may be more ticket-splitting than we’ve seen in any recent election. Maybe that’s the election that we get.

Way Too Early Prediction: Right now, I give the edge to President Biden, but just barely. I know the polls don’t show it, but I think his support is stronger than the polls indicate. The post-debate polls in battleground states will be telling, though.