Some Thoughts on the Epstein Client List Fallout

Gaming out the politics of Trump's blunder

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock for the past week or so, the Trump administration has really stepped in it over the Jeffrey Epstein files.¹ During an appearance on Fox News in February, a Fox News anchor asked a very direct question to Attorney General Pam Bondi about the so-called “client list” that Epstein supposedly had.

“The DOJ may be releasing the list of Jeffrey Epstein’s clients? Will that really happen?” the anchor asked.² “It’s sitting on my desk right now to review,” Bondi said. Now, Bondi says that she was referring to the files, also mentioning the “JFK files [and] MLK files, as well.” She did indeed reference the files related to the assassinations of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. when answering the question on Fox News in February. She may very well have been referring to the files, but it doesn’t take a master’s degree in political science or communications to know that answering such a specific question the way she did has caused a massive political headache.

I care not for the conspiracy theories related to Epstein’s death.³ In November 2019, then-Attorney General Bill Barr said Epstein’s death was the result of “a perfect storm of screw-ups.” I’m inclined to agree. Still, the political climate at the time, as it is now, is highly partisan, and the distrust of political institutions has only gotten worse. The Trump administration clearly didn’t realize the can of worms it was opening when it decided to review the Epstein files, particularly because of Trump’s well-documented relationship with Epstein.

That’s why the politics of the Epstein files are so fascinating. Many in Trump’s base are pissed. Trump isn’t doing himself any favors with his public remarks, spoken or written, about the Epstein files. For example, Trump’s post on Saturday reeks of desperation to get past the issue. At the same time, the post makes it impossible to move on from it. Obviously, Trump is talking to his base, not someone like me.

Democrats, of course, are stoking the issue. This is the real danger that I don’t think has hit Trump and his most loyal of apologists. Let’s game this out. We still have a long way to go until November 2024, but historically, the party that holds the White House doesn’t perform well in midterm elections. Republicans’ hold on control of the House is very narrow as it is. Polls are slowly beginning to show an uptick for Democrats. The so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” isn’t popular and will be weaponized. As the impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, the cost of goods will rise. Add to that a frustrated voter base. I think we’re past the stage of 40-plus seats being flipped in a midterm election, but enough seats could change hands to give Democrats control of the House.

House Democrats could explore the Epstein files and client list if and when they take committee gavels in January 2027. Some are already making noises about this. Just last week, House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (D-MD) led a letter signed by Democrats on the Committee urging Bondi to release Epstein files that mention Trump. The letter describes the considerable resources the FBI dedicated to the review, agents logging more than 100 hours during a two-week period, and sleeping on desks.

“Despite this immense effort, no additional Epstein records have been released, and just this week, the FBI stated that it has determined ‘no further disclosure would be appropriate or warranted,’” the letter states. “This raises the question of whether the White House has moved to prevent the declassification and public release of the full Epstein files because they implicate President Trump, and whether these massive redaction efforts and the withholding of the files were intended to shield your boss from embarrassing revelations within those files.”

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) plans to introduce an amendment this week that would call for the release of the Epstein files. It’s not clear to which bill on the floor Khanna will offer the amendment. The House Rules Committee will almost certainly block that amendment from consideration on the floor.

Assuming Trump and Bondi haven’t resolved this mess, Democrats have been handed a political gift. Will it translate to anything? If there is any impact, it’ll be electorally. Look, most voters don’t care about the Epstein drama. They’re going to care what’s happening in the world around them, particularly the economy. That has been and will likely continue to be the most pressing issue on the minds of voters. The Epstein files could depress Republican turnout, though, which only boosts Democrats.

Let me be clear again that November 2026 is 477 days away. That’s an eternity in politics. If Democrats do take control of the House in 2026, it’s unlikely that Trump or his administration will cooperate with investigations. That doesn’t mean that House Democrats won’t invite Ghislaine Maxwell to testify. I’m not saying they will, of course. However, the administration's refusal to release the Epstein client list is the only thing that seems to have damaged Trump with his base.

All this said, I guarantee you that there are congressional Republicans–mostly conservatives–who operate in information silos who are seeing this drama unfold, and they don’t know what to do about it. The shredding of the Constitution and the rule of law haven’t done it. Nope. It’s the Epstein client list. A conspiracy theory matters more than the Constitution and good policy.

1. Some of those files have been released.

2. Forgive me. I don’t watch Fox News (or MSNBC, for that matter), so I don’t know the anchor’s name, nor do I care to look it up.

3. Admittedly, I have a crude sense of humor and occasionally used the “Epstein didn’t kill himself” line. I regret it now.