The Bipartisan Effort to Force Release of the Epstein Files Gains Momentum
Polling on the issue is bad for Trump, but will the controversy last through August?
There has been added drama regarding the Epstein files since the latest update on Wednesday. As I mentioned in the first post about this on Monday, there are congressional Republicans–mostly conservatives–who operate in information silos who are seeing this drama unfold, and they don’t know what to do about it. Little has changed, but I’m going to begin this post with a warning.
The Wall Street Journal story on the alleged drawing that Trump gave Jeffrey Epstein for his 50th birthday runs the risk of bringing Trump’s base back to him. The story could be completely true, but Trump’s base has thus far viewed it as an unfair attack based on an unsubstantiated allegation. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) has also alleged, according to information his office has received, that “[FBI] personnel were instructed to ‘flag’ any [Epstein] records in which President Trump was mentioned.” Conservatives tend to view “unnamed sources” skeptically or dismiss them entirely, so I’m not sure how helpful this is.
House Republican Leadership Badly Wants This to Go Away
As mentioned on Wednesday, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Ro Khanna (D-CA) plan to put every House member on record on the Epstein files. Massie and Khanna have introduced a rule, H.Res. 581, to start that process. H.Res. 581 would provide for the consideration of H.R. 185 and substitute the text of the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
Massie and Khanna have to wait until H.Res. 581 has sat in the House Rules Committee, but they should be able to begin collecting signatures for the discharge petition when the House returns in September. As of now, H.Res. 581 has ten Republican cosponsors, which is more than enough to get the 218 signatures needed for the discharge petition, assuming every Democrat signs.
Realizing that the drama over the Epstein files has not yet dissipated, House Republican leadership is trying to find a way to derail the momentum that Massie and Khanna have through a nonbinding resolution, H.Res. 589, which purports to provide for the release of the Epstein files. This nonbinding resolution is sponsored by Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and cosponsored by every Republican on Rules, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). You may recall that Norman voted for the Khanna amendment to H.R. 3633 in Rules last week to force the release of the Epstein files.
The Rules Committee did markup a rule for H.Res. 589 last week. That rule, if passed, deems the passage of H.Res. 589. In other words, there will only be one vote on the matter if House Republican leadership decides to bring it to the floor. However, it’s unlikely the votes are there to pass the rule.
Don’t be fooled or confused by the language in H.Res. 589. This is a resolution. It doesn’t have the force of law behind it. H.Res. 589 is no more than a glorified press release. The Massie-Khanna effort is the only significant attempt to compel the release of the Epstein files.
The Polling
In the post on Monday, I mentioned the YouGov/Economist polling on the Epstein files. There was more polling last week that shows how botched the handling of the Epstein files has been. The YouGov/Economist survey found that 83 percent of registered voters say the government should release all the documents related to the Epstein case. Only 3 percent said the government shouldn’t release the documents. The survey also found that 69 percent of voters think the government is covering up evidence it has about Epstein.
There have been other surveys since then. Reuters/Ipsos found that 54 percent of adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Epstein files while 17 percent approve. Fully 60 percent believe the government is hiding information on Epstein’s death. When it comes to the Epstein “client list,” 69 percent of adults believe the government is hiding it. This includes 82 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Republicans.
Quinnipiac only gauged the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein files. Only 17 percent of registered voters approve while 63 percent disapprove. YouGov/CBS found that 89 percent of adults say the government should release all the information about the Epstein case. More pointed toward so-called “MAGA Republicans,” 60 percent are satisfied with how the Trump administration has handled the issue while 40 percent are dissatisfied. The numbers are almost completely reversed for “non-MAGA Republicans,” with 41 percent satisfied and 59 percent dissatisfied. Only 11 percent of Republicans say the Epstein files will matter a lot in how they evaluate Trump while 35 percent say the Epstein files will matter a little. A majority–54 percent–say the Epstein files won’t matter at all.
The disconnect between Republicans and independents is so stark. This has been a recurring theme in polling that I’ve seen. Independents have tended to lean closer to Democrats in most polling. This is what spells problems for congressional Republicans, particularly those in competitive seats. For example, 17 percent of independents in the YouGov/CBS survey are satisfied with the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein case. An eye-popping 83 percent are dissatisfied. Only 23 percent of independents won’t factor in the Epstein files into how they evaluate Trump. However, 41 percent say it matters a lot, and another 36 percent say it matters a little.
Coming up on the August recess, where the Trump administration will have the news cycle to itself, is a risk, though. The administration will almost certainly use that to their advantage. We’ll have to wait and see how much staying power the controversy over the administration’s failure to follow through on the release of the Epstein files.