The Prediction Post
The Most Too Close to Call Election of Too Close to Call Elections
Let me begin by saying that I took a break. Congress is out, so work has been a little slower than usual. Most of my post ideas over the past few weeks would’ve probably come across as too fiery, so I shelved them. One or two of those will eventually be revisited after the election, by which I mean once we know who won. I may have some analysis, too. We’ll see.
It’s the time of year when people who know what I do for a living ask me what I think will happen. Although I noted that I wasn’t confident about my 2022 predictions, I was way off. As I mentioned at the time, a September 2022 memo I had written to a colleague was actually more consistent with the outcome. I wish I hadn’t put as much stock in the polls. Lesson learned.
Before getting to the predictions, I just want to say that regardless of which team you play for or which candidate you backed, please gracefully accept the results. We need to get back to “precedented times.” Accept the results and find out why voters rejected your candidate or your party, learn from the results, and find out how be competitive the next time around. Just please be responsible.
2024 House Race: Right now, I expect Democrats to win the majority in the House. On the low end, they’ll probably have 219 to 221 seats. That’s not much of a majority, but it still means Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Democrats could have a larger majority if Vice President Harris is strong in Arizona, California, Iowa, and Michigan. Some seats elsewhere could be a boon to Democrats if Harris runs strong. There’s a world in which Democrats find themselves with a 225- to 230-seat majority. Such a scenario is highly unlikely.
Is there a world in which Republicans keep the majority? Yes, there is, and it’s more likely than the prospect of Democrats winning 225 to 230 seats. Republicans surprised a lot of people by growing their conference in 2020 even as Trump lost the White House, but this is a different map than in 2020. A lot would have to go right for Republicans to keep their majority.
There are plenty of seats to watch Tuesday night, and they will tell us a lot about the House and possibly about the presidential race. Below, I have poll closing times for some of the key House seats in the election.
7:00 pm: VA-02 and VA-07 are seats currently held by a Republican and a Democrat, respectively. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) is more likely than not to win re-election, but what little polling is available shows a close race. VA-07 is an open seat, and it’s a competitive district. Again, polling shows a close race, but the Democratic nominee, Alex Vindman, is more likely than not to hold on.
7:30 pm: NC-01 is the only competitive race in the Tar Heel State. Polls have shown Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) with decent leads, but nothing has come out of the district since mid-October, and the district has a very slight Republican bent (R+1).
8:00 pm: We’re getting into the real competitive races. There are two competitive seats currently held by Democrats in Michigan, MI-07 and MI-08. Prognosticators seem to think that MI-07, currently held by a Democrat, will flip to a Republican. It’s an open seat. MI-08 is another open seat currently held by a Democrat that could flip. If Harris runs strong in Michigan, the Democrats running in those races, Curtis Hertel and Kristen McDonald Rivet, may ride her coattails. In Pennsylvania, keep an eye on PA-07, PA-08, and PA-10. Two incumbents, Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA), are running for re-election, and Republicans have targeted both seats. Both districts have limited polling, but Wild and Cartwright had decent leads. Those polls are also more than a month old. In PA-10, Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, could lose an R+5 district. A poll released at the beginning of October had Perry down 9 points to his Democratic opponent. I have a hard time believing Harris will lose Pennsylvania if Perry loses his race. Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) is once again fighting for his political future in a congressional district that Trump carried in 2020. Recent polling shows him with leads of 1 point to 12 points. That’s, uh, quite a range.
9:00 pm: Polls close for another round of competitive races in Arizona, Nebraska, New York, and Wisconsin. Like Pennsylvania, if Harris runs strong in Arizona, two Republican incumbents, David Schweikert in AZ-01 and Juan Ciscomani in AZ-06, could be in trouble. I tend to think Arizona will be one of Trump’s best-performing competitive states, though. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) looks like he’s in serious trouble, as polls have consistently shown him trailing his Democratic opponent. The New York districts that helped give Republicans their narrow majority in 2022 have been redrawn. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is in a tough race in NY-17 against former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), but he seems to have threaded the needle in the district. However, Republican incumbents are facing tough races in NY-04 and NY-19. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) may well win re-election, but this could be a super close race that even tilts to Democrats in the end.
10:00 pm: All indications right now are that Republicans are running strong in Nevada, which means that NV-03 might be worth watching. There are two other seats here, NV-01 and NV-04, that are less competitive but could get interesting if Trump runs away with the state.
11:00 pm: California has several seats in play. The seats in play that are currently held by Republicans are CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, and CA-45. Each of these features Republican incumbents, including Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) in CA-41, who chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. Rep. David Valadao in CA-22 is one of the two remaining Republicans in the House who voted to impeach Trump, and he has survived in his Democrat-leaning district before. Rep. Mike Garcia in CA-27 and Rep. Michelle Steel in CA-45 also have their work cut out for them in the D+4 and D+2 districts. An open Democratic seat, CA-47, could also flip to Republicans. Finally, OR-05 and WA-03 are seats that could flip. A Republican currently holds OR-05, and a Democrat holds WA-03.
12:00 am: Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) is in real trouble against Nick Begich. It’s possible she survives, but it’ll depend on how Harris does in the Last Frontier State.
It may take some time to know how the House will actually shake out. Because of how close some races were, the House wasn’t called until eight days after the election in 2022, on November 16, 2022.
2024 Senate Races: Republicans are very likely to take control of the Senate. That’s not to say that there isn’t a way Democrats maintain 50 seats in the chamber, but it would require Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) to lose to her independent challenger, Dan Osborn, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) to lose to Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). Both Osborn and Allred have made these races incredibly close, but Nebraska is a traditionally Republican state. Although Democrats have claimed that Texas is trending purple, there hasn’t been much evidence from the ballot box. Democrats also have to hold on to seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania. I think the latter is likely, but Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) may run out of luck in Ohio. Obviously, West Virginia will flip to Republicans. Montana is likely to flip to Republicans. Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin will probably stay in Democratic hands.
When it’s all said and done, Republicans are likely to have a 51- to 52-seat majority.
2024 Presidential Election: Man, I don’t even know what to think or where to begin, and it’s hard to make a prediction. Trump is likely to win Arizona. Everything else is gettable for either candidate. As I mentioned, it’s hard for me to believe that Harris will lose Pennsylvania if Democrats flip a Republican-leaning seat like PA-10, but I’ll concede that the Republican incumbent in that race probably hasn’t done himself any favors. The poll in Iowa over the weekend was a real eye-opener. No one had Iowa as a competitive state, and it may not truly be, but it’s enough to make one think that some of the sentiment driving Harris to a 3-point lead in Iowa is playing out elsewhere, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Georgia and North Carolina may also be in play for Harris. In 2020, I was pretty confident when I told colleagues that I thought President Biden would win the election. In 2024, I don’t feel like I can make a prediction one way or the other. Harris has the momentum going into Election Day, and Trump is already complaining of a “rigged” election. Neither of these things mean anything at all. It’s a jump ball.