Tuesday Night Was a Wave for Democrats
Some Thoughts About the Races in Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, and Pennsylvania
The 2025 election results are, without question, a repudiation of the first year of Donald Trump’s second term in office. Even before Election Day, Republicans had tacitly admitted that voters had soured on Trump and the Republican brand by gerrymandering additional seats in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina to gain an advantage over Democrats in the House ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The broad failure of the Trump administration to deliver its promised boost to the economy also factored into these results, given that the economy consistently tops the list of issues most important to voters. Going into Election Day, polling showed that two of the three statewide races in Virginia and the New Jersey gubernatorial contest were competitive. The only real exception to this was the Virginia gubernatorial race, in which former Rep. Abigail Spanberger consistently led her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
Republicans are dismissing the election results as “Democrats winning in blue states.” Trump has blamed the losses on his name not being on the ballot and the government shutdown. The narrative coming from Republicans is disingenuous. For example, Republicans carried Virginia in statewide elections in 2021, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) is a popular incumbent. The narrative coming from Republicans also overlooks voter sentiment regarding the economy, affordability, and the country’s direction. The narrative coming from Republicans also ignores elections in Georgia and Pennsylvania—both states carried by Trump in 2024—that Democrats won by large margins on Tuesday.
It is worth considering, though, the brand of Democrats who saw the most success in the races deemed competitive: moderates. This demonstrates the efficacy of promoting policies that appeal to independent voters, and, as Virginia’s Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger has said, “pragmatism over partisanship.” In her race, as well as in Mikie Sherrill’s race in New Jersey, victory was won on a message focused on the economy, public safety, and healthcare, with both candidates distancing themselves from progressive taglines and limiting references to Trump.
Even if one accepts the Republican narrative about Tuesday’s results, the size of Democrats’ victories in Virginia and New Jersey should still be a cause for alarm for Republicans.1 Again, it was just four years ago that Republicans were celebrating statewide victories. Virginia isn’t a red state, but it’s not really a blue state. It has been competitive, from statewide races to the legislature. On the other hand, New Jersey is a blue state, but polling showed a highly competitive gubernatorial contest that ended up not being competitive at all. The size of victories in both states wasn’t captured by polling, showing that pollsters missed something in voter sentiment.
Virginia
The top of the ticket in Virginia didn’t bring any real surprises. The RealClearPolling average in the race between Spanberger and Earle-Sears showed Spanberger leading by an average of 10.2 points. As of Wednesday morning, Spanberger leads by 15.2 points. Earle-Sears predominantly focused her message to voters on culture war issues, specifically attacking Spanberger on trans rights.
Earle-Sears, by focusing on culture war issues, was attempting to recreate the magic of Youngkin’s 2021 victory. The key difference between the approaches is that Youngkin was more subtle in his opposition to trans rights. He framed the issue as “parental rights” and didn’t explicitly oppose trans rights. Earle-Sears didn’t hide her opposition to trans rights or same-sex marriage. Although Earle-Sears was running against national headwinds, her focus on culture war issues shows diminishing returns for Republicans. A pre-election survey conducted by the Washington Post and the Schar School at George Mason University found that 50 percent of Virginia voters trusted Democrats to handle transgender issues. Only 33 percent trusted Republicans.
The only real hiccup in the race was Spanberger’s handling of the violently worded text messages sent in October 2022 by the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Jay Jones, about the then-Speaker Todd Gilbert and his family. Spanberger ignored calls to rescind her endorsement of Jones or to demand that he withdraw from the race.
Not only did the Jones text message scandal evidently fail to hurt Spanberger, but Jones still actually won his race over incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, against earlier polling. Throughout much of October, nearly every poll in this race showed Miyares with a lead of 1 point to as much as 8 points. The final four polls in the race showed Jones either tied with Miyares or slightly ahead. Although Jones underperformed compared to Spanberger and the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, Ghazala Hashmi, as of Wednesday, Jones had 53.3 percent of the vote to Miyares’ 46.7 percent.
Under-the-radar news out of Virginia comes by way of the races for the Virginia House of Delegates. Before the election, Democrats had a slight majority, holding 51 of the 100 seats in the House. Republicans had 48 seats. A pre-election poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University showed Democrats with an 8-point advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot for the House of Delegates. As the pollster noted, “Democrats have maintained a 7-to-8 point lead on the generic ballot throughout the election season.”
Democrats routed Republicans in the election, picking up 13 seats in the House. Democrats won all ten competitive seats and six seats rated “Leans Republican” by the Virginia Public Access Project. Democrats will have 64 seats when the next session of the Virginia General Assembly begins, only two seats short of a constitutional majority.
For historical context, Republicans had consistent control of the Virginia House of Delegates from 1999 through 2018. They regained control from Democrats in 2021. Even when Republicans lost control of the House of Delegates in 2023, Democrats’ majority was very narrow, only 51 seats to Republicans’ 49 seats. Republicans haven’t had as much success in the Virginia Senate,2 but the majorities for both parties have been narrow. 3Currently, Democrats have 21 seats. Republicans have 19 seats. The fact that both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly have been competitive, even in recent years, is another reason why we can’t simply dismiss Tuesday’s results.
It’s worth noting that voter turnout in Virginia was the highest ever in a nonpresidential election year. It’s also worth noting that Virginia has four competitive congressional districts: VA-01, VA-02, VA-07, and VA-10. Of course, Virginia seems to be moving forward with mid-decade redistricting, so the competitive nature of these districts may change.
Democrats would need a top-tier candidate to defeat Wittman in VA-01. It’s possible, but Spanberger’s relative strength compared to a weak Republican candidate probably put her over the edge in the district. Kiggans is in real trouble in VA-02. Miyares’ margin of victory over a terrible Democrat should be alarming. VA-07 and VA-10 are very likely to remain in Democratic hands in the midterm elections.
New Jersey
New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in federal elections. The Garden State hasn’t given its electoral votes for a Republican since George H.W. Bush carried it in 1988. Democrats have consistently held control of the legislature since 2004. However, the state elected a Republican governor, Chris Christie, in 2010 and reelected him in 2014.
Polls in the New Jersey gubernatorial race showed a close race between Rep. Mikie Sherrill and her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli. The RealClearPolling average in the race showed Sherrill with a lead of 3.3 points. The issues in this race were primarily centered around affordability/cost of living and property taxes. Other issues that garnered some attention were crime, education, and transgender rights.
Sherrill’s victory was significantly larger than polling showed. The Democratic nominee for Governor took 56.3 percent to Ciattarelli’s 43.2 percent, a 13-point rout. Additionally, Democrats not only held onto control of the State Assembly but picked up at least three seats. According to the New Jersey Monitor, this is the largest Democratic majority in the Assembly in 52 years. Democrats will hold at least 55 of the 80 seats in the Assembly. The Democratic advantage in the Assembly could rise as tallies are completed.
Looking at the competitive congressional seats in New Jersey, there really isn’t much in terms of warning signs for either party. Although NJ-07 remains competitive, Ciattarelli still won the district by more than 5 points. NJ-09 looks relatively safe for Democrats.
Georgia and Pennsylvania
Georgia saw races for two Public Service Commission (PSC) districts. Although the PSC is divided into five geographical districts, elections for these posts are statewide. The PSC is a regulatory body that primarily regulates power companies, telecommunications, and commercial transportation. PSC seats have six-year terms. Races for these seats are usually held in even years. However, a civil rights lawsuit and legislation passed by the Georgia General Assembly created a special election in an off-year. The special election was called in February by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Democrats have not won a PSC race since 2000.
The race for District 2 featured Republican incumbent Commissioner Tim Echols and Alicia Johnson, the Democratic nominee. The race in District 3 was between another Republican incumbent, Commissioner Fitz Johnson, and the Democratic challenger, Keisha Waites. The Democratic candidates in both races easily defeated the Republican incumbents. Johnson took 62.7 percent to Echols’ 37.3 percent. Waites won with 62.9 percent. Fitz Johnson received 37.1 percent.
Voter turnout was low, coming in at 21.6 percent, despite Republican attempts to get their base to the polls. For example, Gov. Brian Kemp, the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, and Georgia Right to Life endorsed Echols. Kemp and the Chamber endorsed Fitz Johnson. Kemp lent his infrastructure and money to boost the two Republicans.
Municipal elections aided Democrats in high-population areas, such as Atlanta (Fulton County), Marietta (Cobb County), and Sandy Springs (Fulton County). Turnout in Fulton and Cobb exceeded 30 percent, among the highest in the state. Another county that saw turnout above 30 percent was Fayette. What makes Fayette County interesting is that it was, as of the 2024 presidential election, the last Republican stronghold in the immediate Metro Atlanta area. Just last year, Trump carried Fayette with 51.2 percent of the vote. Johnson carried the county with 55.1 percent while Waites took 55.4 percent.
Republican strongholds in Cherokee, Hall, Bartow, Paulding, and Forsyth saw a combined 18.7 percent turnout.4 Counties in the immediate Metro Atlanta area—encompassing Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Fayette—saw 26.4 percent turnout.
What does this mean in Georgia for 2026? It’s hard to deny that the results are a blow to Republicans. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), a candidate for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, is arguing that Republicans need to double down on Trump’s vision for the United States. That’s undoubtedly welcome news to Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA). That said, Democrats can’t take the win in Georgia for granted. Republicans will come back swinging, meaning that Democrats have little room for error in the Peach State.
In Pennsylvania, voters decided whether or not to retain three state Supreme Court justices—Christine Donohue, David Wecht, and Kevin Dougherty. There was significant outside involvement in the election. Former President Barack Obama, former Attorney General Eric Holder, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party were among those who supported retaining the trio of justices. Trump, Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), and the Pennsylvania Republican Party opposed retention.
Although public reporting indicates approximately $1.6 million was spent on the election, the actual amount spent is likely significantly higher, potentially exceeding $15 million. Voters decided to retain each of the justices, each earning the support of more than 61 percent of voters. It’s hard to track what this could mean for 2026.5 However, Trump won Pennsylvania in 2024, so this evidence serves to counter the dismissive attitude Republicans have about the 2025 elections. We’ll also note that turnout in some parts of Pennsylvania was extraordinarily high. Bucks County, for example, saw “[a]lmost half” of voters show up to the polls.
You also have to completely ignore what happened in Georgia and Pennsylvania to buy this narrative. Georgia is probably best described as “leaning red with a hint of purple.” Pennsylvania is a purple state.
Seats in the Virginia Senate weren’t on the ballot on Tuesday. Those races occur every four years and will be back before voters in 2027.
Going back to 2007, the majority party has had 21 seats while the minority had 19 seats. The only exception was in 2011 when the chamber was evenly split, 20 to 20.
I don’t know if I should call these counties part of Metro Atlanta. I think the technical definition for them is “exburbs.”
Pennsylvania has several competitive House seats. Those seats are PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, and PA-17. Four of those are held by Republicans.