Where Americans Are in the Government Shutdown Blame Game
Watch independent voters in the polling on a shutdown
Absent some miracle, the federal government will shut down at the stroke of midnight on October 1. Government shutdowns occur because Article I, Section 9 of the Constitution gives the Legislative Branch the power of the purse. Additionally, the Antideficiency Act prohibits federal agencies from incurring obligations without appropriations passed by Congress. These are just the legal technicalities and don’t touch the underlying political issues that have brought us to this point.
The underlying political issues are as follows:
The Trump administration has ignored appropriations law: I touched on this in August by noting that the administration had violated the Impoundment Control Act on at least four occasions and that Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought’s so-called “pocket rescissions” gambit was likely unconstitutional. This doesn’t get into the mass federal worker layoffs or other attempts to circumvent Congress. Believe me, this is a much bigger issue than conservatives want to admit.1 Empathizing with his Democratic colleagues, Rep. Steve Womack (R-AR) recently said, “If you’re a Democrat — even just like a mainstream Democrat — your predisposition might be to help negotiate with Republicans on a funding mechanism. Why would you do that if you know that whatever you negotiate is going to be subject to the knife pulled out by Russ Vought?” Truer words have never been spoken.
Pandemic-era health insurance subsidies: Democrats want to extend the enhanced premium tax credits for health insurance on the Marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act. There’s bipartisan support for extending these subsidies. Democrats have also pushed for a rollback of the Medicaid changes under the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA). Still, the focus has predominantly been on the enhanced premium tax credits. The total cost of Democrats’ healthcare demands is $662 billion over ten years.2 Democrats are making this an issue because they know Republicans are vulnerable on healthcare in the 2026 midterm elections.
The Democratic Party’s progressive base wants a shutdown: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) got a lot of grief from progressives for allowing the full-year continuing resolution (CR) to pass in March. Sure, Schumer talked a good game until a few days before the CR. Then, he folded. One of the reasons the Democratic Party is viewed poorly in polls is that, according to the latest Economist/YouGov survey, 18 percent of self-identified Democrats and 33 percent of self-identified liberals hold an unfavorable view of the party. The sentiment is that Democrats aren’t fighting back hard enough to stop the Trump administration.
So, where are we? On September 19, the House passed the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, H.R. 5371, by a vote of 217 to 212. The House-passed H.R. 5371—which funds the government through November 21—failed in the Senate by a vote of 44 to 48.3 Both chambers were in recess last week, which makes total sense right before a government shutdown.4 The Senate took a vote on the Eliminate Shutdowns Act, S. 2806, which provides for an automatic CR in the event of a lapse in appropriations. The cloture motion for the motion to proceed failed by a vote of 37 to 61.5 The Senate didn’t revisit H.R. 5371 during Monday’s votes.
The Blame Game in Polling
The blame game is already well underway. Republicans say Democrats’ demand for negotiation is unreasonable,6 that they’re trying to add on $1 trillion in spending,7 and that they want to provide healthcare to illegal immigrants.8 Democrats are blasting Republicans for refusing to negotiate and putting healthcare front and center in their messaging.
Who do voters blame so far? Well, Exiled Policy included a question on this in our recent survey conducted by the Bullfinch Group. Here’s what we found.
As you can see, blame is fairly evenly spread out. A quarter of adults and registered voters blame Republicans and Democrats equally.9 The partisan splits are more revealing, at least when it comes to independents, 31 percent of whom equally blame both parties. It’s also notable that 28 percent of Republicans blame both parties. These results are, of course, subject to spin. If you’re a communications director in a Democratic leadership office, you’re saying, “Nearly half of Americans blame Republicans for this shutdown.”
Just today, The Economist and YouGov released their latest polling, and it includes questions related to the shutdown. Unlike the poll Exiled Policy did, The Economist/YouGov survey doesn’t provide an option for blame for the president.
Another survey from America’s New Majority Project, an outfit associated with former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), shows that 35 percent blame Republicans. Another 35 percent equally blame both parties. Only 21 percent blame Democrats. Although I take issue with the wording of the question, when given the context that Democrats want more spending, 40 percent blame Democrats, 24 percent blame Republicans, and 26 percent blame both parties equally. The reason I take issue with the context is that the pollster didn’t tie it to the issue of healthcare. Yes, it’s more spending, but the context around the spending is key.10
There’s a compelling argument to be made that the polling doesn’t really matter, regardless of who gets the blame. After all, we’re more than a year from the midterm election on November 3, 2026. A lot will happen between now and then, and voters are more likely to vote on kitchen-table issues like the economy, the cost of living, and healthcare. Other issues—such as threats to democracy, civil liberties, and civil rights—have ranked higher in some recent surveys that I’ve seen.
As fair as I think the argument is, the margins in the House are so close, even considering the partisan redistricting in some states, that the government shutdown could have a greater influence than in the past. Although it may not be a top issue, it could sway critical voters in one direction or the other. Ignore the partisan divides and focus on polls that reveal where independents stand. They are the most crucial voting bloc to watch.
Voter Blame in Past Shutdowns
Polls from the last few government shutdowns indicate that voters often attribute most of the blame to Republicans in Congress, although responsibility is frequently shared across both parties. During the fall 2023 shutdown standoff, multiple surveys found Republicans in Congress as the top target of public blame, with shares ranging from about one-third to nearly half of respondents. President Biden and congressional Democrats also received notable blame, but many voters said both sides were equally at fault.
Opinion was more divided during the January 2018 shutdown, which centered on immigration issues. Roughly equal portions blamed Democrats in Congress and Trump, while a smaller share pointed to congressional Republicans.
The 2018–2019 shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, produced clearer results: most polls showed a majority blaming Trump and the GOP, with Democrats drawing far less criticism. In 2013, when the shutdown centered on disputes over the Affordable Care Act, a majority again faulted Republicans, although Democrats and President Obama were not immune to criticism.
Overall, voter blame tends to fall more heavily on the party perceived as driving the shutdown, especially when that party controls the House or whoever is in the White House; however, partisan loyalties strongly shape individual opinions.
It’s not a guarantee that Democrats will get the blame if the government shuts down on October 1. Generally, Democrats are blamed for the January 2018 shutdown, but voters still assigned more blame to Trump and congressional Republicans. FiveThirtyEight explains, “In an average of four polls conducted during the shutdown, 36 percent of Americans felt that Democrats in Congress were responsible for it, 34 percent felt that Trump was responsible, and 16 percent felt that Republicans in Congress were responsible.”
It’s also worth noting that Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House in the 2018 midterm election. However, Republicans netted two seats in the Senate, bringing their majority to 53. The seats Republicans picked up were in states that had been trending red, including Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.
The caveats on the polling are a) voters have a short-term memory and however the 2026 midterm turns out will have more to do with how voters feel about that moment in time rather than what happened in October 2025 and b) should Democrats take control of the House, a massive swing in their favor is highly unlikely, regardless of redistricting that may happen before the election.
First and foremost, because it undermines the constitutional framework. Secondly, because a future Democratic administration will almost certainly use any precedent established under the Trump administration to slow-roll or deny funding for programs Republicans like.
The biggest hit to the deficit would be extending the enhanced premium tax credits ($349.8 billion). The other two items are nullifying a June 2025 rule published by the Department of Health and Human Services ($40.3 billion) and repealing sections of OBBBA related to the health insurance Marketplaces ($271.9 billion).
The Senate considered Democrats’ version of the CR, S. 2882, which failed by a vote of 47 to 45, before considering the House-passed bill. Eight Republicans missed the vote on S. 2882 and H.R. 5371.
That’s sarcasm.
The automatic CR turns discretionary spending into mandatory spending. Mandatory spending is on autopilot and not subject to congressional appropriation. It’s the only way to do this without violating the Presentment Clause. I have reservations about that, but I also tend to view government shutdowns as unproductive, regardless of which party is in power. That being said, I do understand why Democrats are frustrated by the Trump administration.
Republicans know that they need Democratic votes to get to 60 votes for procedural hurdles in the Senate.
Yeah, it’s $1 trillion or more if you include reversing the Medicaid changes made by OBBBA. That was part of Democrats’ messaging early on, but I haven’t seen much of that in recent days. The focus has been almost exclusively on the enhanced premium tax credits. The price tag for that is, as noted, quite significant, and I agree that it’s too much. However, concerns about the deficit expressed by Republicans are absurd after the passage of a bill that will blow a $4.1 trillion hole in the deficit over the next ten years.
This just isn’t true. Federal law prohibits unauthorized immigrants from benefitting from all federal healthcare and retirement programs.
This is the way.
Some might call this a critical detail.